wxteam4's Blog

During this time of year...anytime you have something weatherwise to talk about once a week...that's pretty good...if you can get something twice a week...you're living large...well we've got multiple things to talk about this morning...1st our sensible weather...

Our cold front is on the move...there appears to be a trof (windshift) line that may complicate the storm chances later this afternoon...I'm noticing while the winds are switching...dewpoints are still near 70 immediately behind the wind shift...this map will show the progress of the front & developing trof as the PM goes along...

Now here is a map showing temperatures and dewpoints...notice as of this writing how the dewpoints (green lines) are still high behind the initial wind shift...



So odds are the initial trof will move through around 4-6 PM and then the front will move through after that...it may get muddy trying to figure out where both features line up later today...the issue for storm chances is this initial trof will reduce the moisture convergence...which wasn't looking that great to begin with...so areas farther north...i.e. north of 36 highway may see spottier rains...the good news is this mess is moving through at the ideal time of the PM where instability will be highest...RUC CAPES are in the area of 2500-4500+ in the region...surface temperatures will be 90-95 I think...dewpoints willbe near 70...so we should be ready to pop...we should be capped as well...so that when things pop...a decent line should form...the storms will move E or ESE as the whole line moves towards the SE...so how much rain...some areas may see 1-2+" if you're in the right place...keep in mind...not all will get the rain...some should miss out...I'll be watching the radar like a hawk later this PM...debating whether to get some lawn treatment down so it gets rained in...timing is especially concerning however for the game @ Arrowhead...that 1st half is concerning from a weather standpoint...I've seen some games this year delayed due to lightning concerns...so let's watch for this possibility...we'll be in contact with the refs/ground crews at Arrowhead...what they do with the information is up to them.

We should be cooler/drier tomorrow...into SAT...before the warmth/humidity returns for the last 2/3rds of the holiday weekend...

Onto Gustav...which really got ragged yesterday evening thanks in large part to the frictional effects from Haiti/Hispanola...winds were barely @ tropical storm strength...the center then went through a reforming process earlier this AM near Jamaica and immediately started strengthening again...it's leveled off a bit now just below hurricane strength...Jamaica may hold back the intensifying trend a bit this afternoon...but tomorrow through SUN...all look pretty favorable for an intensifying storm that should make Category 2-3+ intensity as it approaches the Gulf Coast...where is still a big ???. TPC forecasts, subject to errors of upwards of 250 mi. during the day 4/5 time periods are concentrated towards the areas west of New Orleans newar New Iberia, LA...however from Mobile, AL (less likely) towards the Port Lavaca area to the NE of Corpus Christi..need to be aware of this storm...and there is the possibility that the moisture from this storm may try to work it's way towards us towards the middle-later part of next week...however before this...there is another way that Gustav may affect you...that's the potential of a brief run-up in gas prices...I noticed some stations on the KS side dropped there price about 6-8 cents two days ago...to $3.59/gallon...

I bring this up because, believe it or not there are models that forecast how the rigs will be affected with tropical systems and there paths...here is the forecast from this AM...


They've already started to evacuate non-essential folks...and so far their has been no impact on the production...but as you can see from this graphic...there may be a large reduction in production by SUN...that may linger a couple of days afterwards...I saw some interesting information this AM that there is quite a bit of speculation about possible damage to rigs...ala Katrina...however it should be noted that many of the rigs previously damaged have been repaired/upgraded with deeper moorings so that a future storm may not debilitate the rigs as badly the next time...just food for thought...

Another fascinating graphic I found for you...who else will provide this information to you??? is just how good/bad the models due with the position of the storm as the time moves along...notice the REALLY large errors in the modeling position...now maybe these numbers are higher than average because of the reformation of the center last night...but it's important to note they're large errors when the hype of Gustav begins in the media world (if it hasn't already that is)...there is no doubt that LA residents need to be prepared for evacuations...would I leave now...no...would I start packing up a few things yes...will it be insanity in New Orleans SUN/MON...maybe...but also remember that the population now if not nearly as high as before Katrina...so the road system should be able to better handle things more efficiently as opposed to then...and now you have much more awareness of residents to the potential danger a storm like this MAY bring...so any orders will be taken more to heart than before...

Another interesting facet to this storm that was being talked about last night was as this drama unfolds the Republican convention will be happening in Minneapolis...this creates obvious headaches for the tv networks...depending on the severity of the storm...how do you give equal coverage to the convention next week that you gave this week...and cover a storm like this...media resources will be severely strained...and the criticism will fly if there is not fair coverage of the Republican convention...how do you allocate the proper resources...do you pull people from the convention to cover a potentially devastating storm? Do all the network newscasts that this week have been DNC focused shift gears to become storm focused...especially in light of Katrina/Rita from a few years ago...from afar to me this is a fascinating dilemma to watch...lets just hope that the storm doesn't do what it has the capability of doing over the next couple of days...



Why the concern...my final graphic for you shows the energy potential in the water for the storm to feed off of...notice if the storm takes and even close to forecast track from the NHC...it will be going over water that is primed and ready to fuel and intensify the storm...all things being equal (little shear etc)...


The oranges/reds/pinks are high energy potential areas for the storm to energize...the blues represent waters that aren't as favorable to provide energy for the storm to intensify...dynamics of the storm can always alter the intensification/decay potential...this graphic just looks at the energy potential available thanks to the water temperatures.

Oh and Hanna has formed NE of Puerto Rico...winds near 40 MPH...steering current may be a mess with this later on during the weekend. If it hits lands...this may be a more SE US storm threat.

Hope all this information was interesting to you...more tomorrow

Joe

The tropical season is approaching it's climatalogical peak in the next couple of weeks...and with all of the recent activity it certainly seems fitting.  We had the never-ending remnants of Fay last week...and now this week everyone's attention has shifted to the Caribbean and Gustav.  It already reached hurricane strength(category 1) once prior to making landfall on the island of Haiti and is forecast to regain that status as early as late tonight as it moves back over open waters.  Tropical Storm Gustav is forecast to move between Jamaica and Cuba, cross over western Cuba, then emerge into the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico.  The waters in the Gulf are running between 25 C along the Gulf coast, 30 C around Cuba & Jamaica.  This warm water will only further enhance the strengthening forecast to take place over the next few days.  The National Hurricane Center's forecast calls for Gustav to potentially strengthen to a cateogry 3 hurricane in the Gulf, with some models going even higher.  One thing is for certain, EVERYONE on the Gulf Coast needs to watch this storm.  The error this many days out in predicting the location of the storm can be up to 300 miles! 

Click here to see the latest spaghetti model data

By Saturday evening Gustav should be moving off of Cuba and moving closer to the Gulf, this is when we'll have a much better idea where the storm will make it's next landfall.  If you have plans to go down south to the coast for Labor Day Weekend, you definitely need to keep an eye on this storm...or even if you have family/friends/interests in the Gulf Coastal area you should pay attention to the latest information.

Click here to get the latest on Gustav

You can also track Gustav and all the tropical weather right here on our website.  Just click the weather tab on the homepage, then click on tropical weather.

Locally, our weather will be a lot more quiet compared to the tropics, with the most active day in the longranger coming our way tomorrow.  The front will move through tomorrow bringing with it an increased chance for showers/storms here in the metro, especially during the afternoon and evening hours.  Right now the Storm Prediction Center has us under a slight risk for severe weather for tomorrow.  The main threat would be some damaging winds or hail.

Click here to see the latest outlook information

Beyond Thursday we see very comfortable temperatures on Friday, with highs in the lower 80s.  Labor Day Weekend looks fabulous with temperatures in the mid to upper 80s and dry weather expected to last until next Tuesday evening/Wednesday.

Enjoy the rest of your Wednesday!

-Karli

I couldn't resist...aside from the fact that Fay never was a hurricane...this had to leave a mark...enjoy...Joe

http://view.break.com/559318 - Watch more free videos

Happy Monday!  I hope you had a great weekend...and enjoyed today's cool weather!  As of today, the average high temperature is 2.4 degrees cooler than normal for the month...with no prospect of making up the deficit before the end of the month!

Tomorrow should be another winner!  The morning low could hit 56, which is only 3 degrees warmer than the record low of 53, set in 1910.  The freezing level is a little higher than last night indicating the air is warming aloft...so a cool start will turn into a near normal finish...around 83. (normal tomorrow is 86 for a high)

The mid-week forecast is a bit tricky.  The return flow of moisture interacting with the next Pacific wave will start firing up storms out west tomorrow night...the resulting quasi-northwest flow will bring some thunderstorms into north-central Kansas early on Wednesday.  The resulting outflow could set up some spotty storms closer to home on Wednesday afternoon/ overnight Wednesday night.  The timing on Wednesday will affect the storm chances and placement on Thursday...and will need an additional 24 hours to be more specific about rain chances/location for Thursday.  The CHIEFS are home Thursday evening...so that will have to be watched closely.

The holiday weekend looks good.  Labor Day itself could be very warm...low 90s! But I don't expect the warmer air to last.  There's no sense in bucking the cooler trends, that we've seen all year long, at this point.  Only January and June have been warmer than normal...and June was only 0.4 degrees above normal...so that barely qualifies. So I expect September to be slightly cooler and drier than normal.

Longer range trends are interesting.  The Climate Prediction Center continues to call for a warmer than normal winter.  Someone told me the Old Farmer's Almanac is calling for a very cold winter...I can't confirm that...but if you've seen their prediction...I'd be interested.

We are heading back toward an El Nino event this winter.  Warmer waters are already establishing in the equatorial waters west of Peru.  Meanwhile we're seeing some very warm waters pooling across the northwest Pacific...with a cold pool from the Aleutians to the NW U.S. coastal areas.  Right now, that would favor early outbreaks of chilly Canadian air....but over time...if that warm pool shifts eastward...may, in fact favor another stormy winter....but perhaps a little warmer.  There are many factors to consider, and the current northern hemispheric flow seems to be resetting toward an anchor low over the north Pacific.  A strong low in that area would make me concerned about early seaon snowfall.  Obviously, it's too early to tell...but fun to speculate!  I've already had a few oldtimers tell me they see signs of a rough winter ahead...and a lot of folks start asking this time of year.  Either way..at this point it's just too early to make that forecast. 

By the way meteorological fall starts next Monday!  Summer flew by, much too quickly for me!  We lose 88 minutes of daylight in the next 36 days!  Yikes!

Enjoy the last week of meteorological summer...it;s been a pretty good one!

Mike

Boy...last night was brutal...between the Royals and the Chiefs...yikes! I got depressed watching both games...I guess the Wizards won (tied 1-1)...so that was nice...

A LOT of people are talking to me about the way this summer has gone...virtually everybody is of the belief, rightfully so, that we've enjoyed one of our better summers...actually putting numbers to paper...it's tough to top the summer of 2004...wet and very cool...3rd coolest if my memory is correct...so how dows this summer so far stack up...well I've done some research (it's what I do for you when I don't have weather to talk about) and here is what I've come up with...so far here is the breakdown of Summer 2008 (meteorological and not astronomical)....

Average Monthly Temperatures (AMT)

JUNE: 75.8 (-1.7)
JULY 77.1 (-1.4)
AUGUST {so far} 73.8 {+.2}

Which averages out through yesterday to about -1 degree over the 3 months...we may get a pinch below that over the next 7 days...the AMT is roughly 75.6 degrees...comparing that to the summer of 2004...not even close...and based on data going back 35 years...this would be the 10th coolest summer...here is the lineup from the NCDC for Kansas City.

YEAR     JJA       RANK
               AVG
2007      77.6      27
2006      79.3      33
2005      77.5      26
2004      72.8       3
2003      77.7     28
2002      78.6     32
2001      76.7     22
2000      76.8     24
1999      76.3     18
1998      76.1     13
1997      75.1      8
1996      74.6      5
1995      76.6     21
1994      75.7     11
1993      76.1     13
1992      71.6     1
1991      78.1     29
1990      76.6     21
1989      74.8     7
1988      79.7     34
1987      77.4     25
1986      76.1     13
1985      72.6     2
1984      76.5     19
1983      78.6     32
1982      74.4     4
1981      75.1     8
1980      80.3     35
1979      74.6     5
1978      76.8     24
1977      76.2     17
1976      76.0     12
1975      78.3     30
1974      75.2     10
1973      76.1     13

The higher the rank...the hotter the summer...lower vice-versa...so the summer of 1980 was the hottest since 1973...the summer of 1992 was the coolest...

As we say here at FOX 4...Working For You!

Sensible weather...weird clouds are affecting parts of the area...and there is some sort of southward moving boundary that has pushed to the I-70 corridor...the net result of this is cooler temperatures northwards...warmer south...temperatures tonight @ KCI...assuming skies are clear...could be at their coolest levels since mid June...

We may very well see another 1 day surge of heat here...WED will need to be watched...but depending on the timing of the next front due in sometime THU...we can really see a pop in the temps...and assuming the front holds off till late day/night...mid 90s are VERY possible and I'll probably be boosting my forecast high a bit there as I look over the latest later this afternoon...that front is our next decent rain chance...

That's it...2 more noon shows for me on THU-FRI and then I'm off on vacation for a couple of weekends...

Joe

Well the rain has come and gone...we should be pretty stable for the rest of the day...but a dewpoint discontinuity area has developed from Chillicothe to Sedalia and SSWards...I wouldn't be shocked with the atmosphere destabilizing more to the SE of here...maybe we can pop a few more storms...this area really didn't get much...speaking of that...as usual the haves and have nots were big today...cont me in a have not... .02" here at the house...there were some 20near 4" totals north of the metro...the station had about .6"...and the metro amounts varied from near 1.5" to a trace, if not even less than that on the SE side...lots of lightning...and radar was impressive at around 5AM or so...but then the big fizzle took over...

Next chance is not great and connected to a disturbance or 2 in SC NE and W KS...you can clearly see them with the visible satellite pictures and also the regional radar loop...these will need to be watched for some later tonight chances...into early tomorrow...after that we should be in good shape for a few days...this area may run along the KS/NE state line for the rest of the day...but it will be encountering drier air...dewpoints in Beatrice are down to 50...and that dry air will slowly spread over our area tonight and tomorrow...so the humidity from yesterday and this AM (higher dewpoints) will slowly fade away...

Fay continues to spin away in NW FL...and she is still packing quite the wallop...rainfall amounts of near 20" are coming in...so far today alone...Thomasville, GA has had close to 12"...Perry, FL so far has had 18" and Monticello, FL is at 16.2" (later 2 are storm totals). The Tallahassee area is really in it this afternoon...over 4" today with rain of .5-1.0" coming down in the last hour...and will be at that pace for awhile today...here is a nice regional radar for you to look at...Fay actually went into the water overnight...briefly saw a n uptick in the winds to 50 MPH then made landfall for the fourth time in FL...wonder if that's a record? radar estimates this AM were 6"/hour in some of the bands associated with Fay and a glimpse of the AM sounding from TLH shows a saturated atmosphere up to near 600 mbs , or close to 16,000 feet...very impressive!

That's about all I have for today...one of the negatives about doing so much blogging during the week is that I run out of stuff for the weekend...and as you know I just don't throw up a couple of maps and call it a day...I tend to be rather verbose shall we say!

Joe

Good afternoon and thanks for stopping by...more on Fay in a bit...first though...let's keep it local...

A Cold front in NE is our next weather feature of interest...this front will make it through the area...at some point...over the next 36 hours...the speed may be largely dictated by how many t/storms develop along the boundary later today and tonight...the front actually will have a decent push forward farther north into IA and MN/WI...the southern part of the front may not have a big push...unless we get some decent outflow/storms to help it along...and that's our forecast concern for the weekend...because if the front lingers south of I-70 in the viewing area...the potential will be there for additional activity on SUN...as the WRF portrays...plus there is some weird mid level wave helping things out as well...the GFS keeps the boundary far enough south of here to eliminate the chances altogether on SUN...it to has rain on SAT...so at this point SAT is an iffy day...more than likely not a rainout...but certainly rain chances...AM connected to what happens in NE/IA this evening...PM connected to location of the actual front...on the plus side to the movement of the front...some nice pressure rises are occuring behind it...so it's really a sitation where we'll need to watch the front's progress towards us...those pressure rises will weaken as the front get's closer to us...

To complicate things the cap is pretty stout in NE/IA now to reduce the chances a bit of storms developing...a no storm scenario means the front may linger around here through tomorrow...so the forecast is by now means perfectly clear-cut...

One is also impressed by the dry air that is currently flowing into the central plains...dewpoints are in the 30s-40s now in the NW quarter of NE...that air iin a modified form should get here later SUN into MON...so this brief bout of humidity...dewpoints near 70 will leave us again towards the end of the weekend and esp. early next week...tat means AM lows tumbling into the 55-60 range again as NE/E winds help funnel pleasant air our way...IF we can get that front to blow through...SUN may turn out great!

Early next week loks very nice...great AMs and pleasant PMs..mostly below average temps through TUE...next more significant rain chance arrives sometime later WED into THU AM...this will be connected to a Pacific front that should move through...warmer more humid air should spread in ahead of this feature...so there is potential of a more widespread rain in about 5-6 days or so...however decent cooling should occur behind this more robust storm.

Onto Fay which is still churning away with 40+ MPH winds in the FL Panhandle...Fay has been a tropical storm for 1 week straight...originally named last FRI @ 5PM...it's unusual for a system to remain in that particuliar state for this amount of time...by now it should've been a hurricane or downgraded to a depression...but FAY is a unique storm...

The winds have never really been that big of a deal for the US...it's been aboout the rainfall...here is the report from the Melbourne NWS earlier this AM with updated rainfall totals...the worse of the rain is done for FL...although, I wouldn't be surprised if some areas in N FL end up with some amounts near or above 10"...

...TROPICAL STORM FAY PRODUCES RECORD FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...

BELOW ARE SOME SELECTED PRELIMINARY RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THE RECORD
RAINFALL EVENT ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM FAY. THE STORM TOTAL
VALUES ARE MULTI-DAY ACCUMULATIONS...BEGINNING MONDAY AUGUST 18 WHEN
THE TROPICAL STORM WAS OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND OUTER RAINBANDS
BEGAN TO ROTATE ONSHORE THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA. AT THIS TIME...
RAINBANDS CONTINUE TO AFFECT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NWS MELBOURNE
FORECAST AREA AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED IN MANY AREAS
TODAY. THE INFORMATION BELOW WILL BE UPDATED AS ADDITIONAL DATA IS
COMPILED. A PRELIMINARY POST TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORT (PSHMLB) WITH
COMPLETE DATA ON THE METEOROLOGICAL IMPACTS OF TC FAY UPON EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

NOTE: AS NOTED BELOW...MANY OF THE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS ONLY
INCLUDE RAINFALL UP THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING (08/21/08) AND WILL BE
UPDATED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING LATER TODAY.

OFFICIAL NWS ASOS SITES. STORM TOTALS (08/18/08-08/21/08)

SANFORD (SFB): 13.28
FT. PIERCE (FPR): 11.58
VERO BEACH (VRB): 11.20
DAYTONA BEACH (DAB): 6.38
ORLANDO (MCO): 5.87
ORLANDO (ORL): 5.77
LEESBURG (LEE): 5.27

UPDATED TO 2PM EDT (18Z)
SANFORD: 13.82
FT. PIERCE: 11.58
VERO BEACH: 11.20
DAYTONA BEACH: 7.61
ORLANDO (MCO): 5.88
ORLANDO (ORL): 5.93
LEESBURG: N/A

MELBOURNE NWS FORECAST OFFICE: 19.60 (THROUGH 2 PM 08/22/08)

CAPE CANAVERAL (USAF FIELD MILL 21): 22.83 (THROUGH 1 AM 08/22/08)

COCORAHS OBSERVERS (72 HOUR TOTALS ENDING 7 AM 08/21/08):
PALM SHORES 1.4 W (FL-BV-2): 20.75 (THROUGH 6 PM 08/21/08)
PALM SHORES 4.3 NNW (FL-BV-20): 19.95
MELBOURNE 7.0 NW (FL-BV-22): 19.75
PALM SHORES 2.9 NW (FL-BV-16): 18.87
MELBOURNE 1.1 N (FL-BV-6): 17.39
MALABAR 2.9 NNW (FL-BV-9): 17.22
MICCO 4.5 NW (FL-BV-7): 15.10
HOBE SOUND 3.9 NW (FL-MT-5): 14.11
MELBOURNE BEACH 3.9 SSE (FL-BV-11): 12.98
JENSEN BEACH 0.6 SW (FL-MT-6): 12.95
PALM BAY 2.6 SSE (FL-BV-1): 12.44
ROCKLEDGE 1.1 WSW (FL-BV-13): 12.42
PORT ST. LUCIE 1.7 WSW (FL-SL-3): 11.66
COCOA 2.6 WNW (FL-BV-23): 11.64
STUART 3.7 SW (FL-MT-7): 11.35
FT. PIERCE 2.8 SSE (FL-SL-5): 9.82
DELTONA 2.9 SE (FL-VL-7): 7.99
SANFORD 0.4 ENE (FL-SM-4): 7.56
UNION PARK 2.9 SSE (FL-OR-1): 6.40
ST. CLOUD 1.7 SSW (FL-OS-15): 6.15
DE LAND 4.5 NW (FL-VL-3): 5.85
DE LAND 5.7 NW (FL-VL-9): 5.47
CHULUOTA 0.9 N (FL-SM-8): 5.28
DE LEON SPRINGS 0.4 SE (FL-VL-4): 5.21
NEW SMYRNA BEACH 1.5 E (FL-VL-1): 5.09
MOUNT PLYMOUTH 0.2 WSW (FL-LK-5): 4.65
LONGWOOD 2.3 WNW (FL-SM-5): 4.50
ALTAMONTE SPRINGS 1.3 N (FL-SM-1): 4.19
WINDERMERE 1.3 NW (FL-OR-2): 3.99
MIMS 7.5 NNW (FL-BV-3): 3.98
ST. CLOUD 0.1 WNW (FL-OS-16): 3.69
EUSTIS 1.2 SE (FL-LK-2): 3.55
EDGEWATER 2.4 N (FL-VL-6): 3.43
POINCIANA PLACE 2.6 NNW (FL-OS-1): 3.29
OCOEE 0.5 SSW (FL-OR-6): 3.06
EDGEWATER 3.3 SE (FL-VL-2): 2.13
GROVELAND 1.7 E (FL-LK-3): 1.97
BASSVILLE PARK 1.0 NE (FL-LK-4): 1.53

NWS COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS (72-HR TOTALS ENDING 8 AM 08/22/08)
FORT PIERCE 14.25
STUART 14.27
PALM BAY 13.40
NETTLES ISLAND 12.21
VERO BEACH 12.06
DELAND 12.20
SANFORD 14.25
WINDERMERE 5.94
SCOTTSMOOR 11.79
KISSIMMEE 3.80 (LAST UPDATE 8AM 08/21/08)
PLYMOUTH 11.14
TITUSVILLE 12.18
CLERMONT 5.27

UNOFFICIAL PUBLIC OBSERVATIONS
MELBOURNE/WINDOVER FARMS (THROUGH 6 AM 8/22/08): 26.65
SEBASTIAN (SCRIPPS SPACE COAST REPORT THROUGH 8 AM 08/22/08): 22.25
VIERA (THROUGH 8 AM 8/22/08): 20.75
INDIALANTIC (THROUGH 5 PM 08/21/08): 17.40
MERRITT ISLAND 1S HWY 520 (THROUGH 2 AM 08/22/09): 14.56
PORT ST. JOHN (THROUGH 2 PM 08/21/08): 12.74
ASTOR 2.0 S (THROUGH 3 PM 08/21/08): 7.20
ORLANDO (THROUGH 1 PM 08/21/08): 5.00

OTHER UNOFFICAL REPORTS (4-DAY TOTALS 08/18/08-08/21/08)
MERRITT ISLAND 8S HWY 520 (KFLMERRI16): 19.23
MERRITT ISLAND 3S HWY 520 (KFLSMERR1): 13.93

The monthly total for Melbourne is 18.16"...still more than 1" away from their all-time monthly record...there are reports from the Cocoa Beach area of almost 33" of rainfall since MON AM...the storm is still VERY impressive on radar and satellite...you can really tell the organization of the storm is still decent...IF it were to get out over the open waters it would intensify nicely...however at this point it doesn't look like a good possibility of that occuring...here is a look at radar from Tallahassee as well as storm totals.

Fay will continue it's westward, slow movement through the weekend...and may start to curl towards the NE...TPC forecasts call for it to be in the MS area nest TUE/WED...so heavy rainfall is likely in the MS/AL/W FL areas for the next 3-5 days. I have a very difficult time thinking that any moisture from this system will affect our area...MO Bootheel...possible...here not so much.

I just talked to Karli's mom who lives in Central FL...she said they've had about 15" of rain
in the last 30 hours...and said it was easily the worst storm she's experienced in terms of rainfall...compared to the 3 other hurricanes that she's been through.

Have a great weekend...

Joe

I'm still NOT confident about that answer...although there really isn't a 90 in the forecast for the foreseeable future...and in about 5-7 days we really start fighting the calendar...typically, if memory serves, we average 2-3 90s in the month of SEPT...so far this year we've hit 90+ 12 times I believe...and the last time we did it officially @ KCI was back on August 5th...so yesterday it got me thinking...what is the record for the "earliest" last 90 degree day of the year...so I did a quickie check of the records going back to 1888...here is what I've come up with...

THIS YEAR (so far): August 5th
August 1996: August 6th
August 1992: August 10th
August 1927: August 6th
August 1920: August 8th
July 1915: July 14th
August 1888: August 3rd

So even if (this remains to truly be seen) we've had our last 90...it won't be a record for the "EARLIEST" last 90 of the season...that honor goes to the year 1915...btw in July of that year...6.67" of rain...August 4.66"...September 5.88"...can you see the connection? Actually that year I believe...we only hit 90+ 4 times...3 in the month of May...

In 1950 we never did in August...but we did in September and October...and in 1927...I think we were in the 90s 10 times in the month of Septemberso it just goes to show you...if the right situation sets up and even in the early fall we can still do it...although once you get towads later SEPT and OCT...typically you do it ahead of a cold front...when you get decent SW winds before a nice cooldown...

Fay talk...

Making landfall again near or just north of Daytona Beach...rainfall is/was through the roof in Melbourne...broke another daily record yesterday...here is some information from 6AM this morning...
...TROPICAL STORM FAY PRODUCES RECORD FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...

BELOW ARE SOME SELECTED PRELIMINARY RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THE RECORD
RAINFALL EVENT ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM FAY. THE VALUES ARE
MULTI-DAY TOTALS...BEGINNING MONDAY AUGUST 18 WHEN THE TROPICAL
STORM WAS OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND OUTER RAINBANDS BEGAN TO
ROTATE ONSHORE THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA. AT THIS TIME...FAY IS NEARING
A SECOND LANDFALL ALONG THE VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST AND RAINBANDS ARE
AFFECTING MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS
EXPECTED IN MANY AREAS TODAY...WITH MORE RAIN FRIDAY ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY THE TC CIRCULATION. THE INFORMATION BELOW WILL BE UPDATED
AS ADDITIONAL DATA IS COMPILED. A PRELIMINARY POST TROPICAL CYCLONE
REPORT (PSHMLB) WITH COMPLETE DATA ON THE METEOROLOGICAL IMPACTS OF
TC FAY UPON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

OFFICIAL NWS ASOS SITES. STORM TOTALS AS OF 430 AM 8/21/08

MELBOURNE (MLB): 14.06
FT. PIERCE (FPR): 11.46
VERO BEACH (VRB): 10.04
SANFORD (SFB): 5.66
DAYTONA BEACH (DAB): 4.98
ORLANDO (MCO): 4.15

MELBOURNE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE: 18.21

CAPE CANAVERAL (USAF, SOUTH CAPE): 20.03 (THROUGH 5 AM 08/21/08)

UNOFFICIAL PUBLIC OBSERVATIONS
MELBOURNE/WINDOVER FARMS (THROUGH 5 AM 8/21/08): 26.20
SEBASTIAN (SCRIPPS SPACE COAST REPORT THROUGH 3 PM 08/20/08): 18.50
VIERA (THROUGH 2 PM 8/20/08): 18.42

COCORAHS OBSERVERS (3-DAY TOTALS, 08/18/08-08/20/08):
PALM SHORES 1.4 W (FL-BV-2): 19.67
PALM SHORES 4.3 NNW (FL-BV-20): 14.78
HOBE SOUND 3.9 NW (FL-MT-5): 13.84
MELBOURNE 7.0 NW (FL-BV-220: 13.67
JENSEN BEACH 0.6 SW (FL-MT-6): 12.95
MELBOURNE BEACH 3.9 SSE (FL-BV-11): 11.72
MELBOURNE 1.1 N (FL-BV-6): 11.57
PORT ST. LUCIE 1.7 WSW (FL-SL-3): 11.52
PALM SHORES 2.9 NW (FL-BV-16): 11.17
STUART 3.7 SW (FL-MT-7): 11.05
MALABAR 2.9 NNW (FL-BV-9): 10.48
FT. PIERCE 2.8 SSE (FL-SL-5): 8.98
MICCO 4.5 NW (FL-BV-7): 8.75
PALM BAY 2.6 SSE (FL-BV-1): 7.31
ROCKLEDGE 1.1 WSW (FL-BV-13): 5.95
COCOA 2.6 WNW (FL-BV-23): 5.72
COCOA 5.8 NW (FL-BV-21): 4.75

OTHER UNOFFICAL REPORTS
MERRITT ISLAND 8S HWY 520 (KFLMERRI16): 17.50
MERRITT ISLAND 3S HWY 520 (KFLSMERR1): 12.09

NWS COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS (24-HR TOTALS ONLY ENDING 8 AM 08/20/08)
STUART 13.89 (8 AM 8/19/08 THROUGH 3 PM 8/20/08)
FORT PIERCE 13.37
NETTLES ISLAND 12.15
VERO BEACH 8.91
PALM BAY 7.74
KISSIMMEE 2.85
DELAND 2.70
WINDERMERE 2.51
SCOTTSMOOR 1.62
PLYMOUTH 1.56
SANFORD 1.53
CLERMONT 0.91


Yesterday they broke their daily record with 7.97"...and now are creeping close to the all time monthly record of 19.5" set, I think in 1995 connected with Hurricane Erin...so far today they're close to 4" so they may have already broken that record...Since June first...get this...close to 39" of rain has fallen!...that's more precip that we average over an entire year!!!!!!!!! Apparently there are now reports of snakes and alligators in the flooded roads...yikes! Also remember it was just a month or so ago that we were talking about brush/wild fires in the same general area...because it was so darn dry! Fay will continue a very slow westward push over the next few days...and will give more rainfall to central and northern FL and eventually southern GA/AL/MS throough early next week...Fay never got the chance to intensify when it got back over the open waters...it's circulation center was soooo broad and the reasons I gave yesterday were also valid...

Our sensible weather...in a nutshell rain chances will be there this weekend...and the dry comfy air is gone for a few days as dewpoints are heading up to near, if not above, 70...so as mentioned yesterday the muggies are returning...also a weak front may get to the I-70 corridor later SAT...and linger into SUN, IF, there aren't a ton of storms to push it farther southwards...rain chances are certainly there on SAT...and depending on the frontal position could be extended into SUN as well...MT will have the details on those chances tonight on the news...

Before I leave you...once again some interesting video (after all will you get this stuff anywhere else????)...this is of a tornado hitting a bus filled with choir members in Poland...notice how small the tornado is...lookk carefully at the car in fron of the bus geting spun...and eventually the bus itself...this occurred over the weekend I think...



Have a great Thursday

Joe

Well for those hoping for rain today...uhhh not so much...there are a few sprinkles out there...maybe a couple of actual showers but unless something dramatically changes...no significant rain in what is turning into a VERY dry month is in the forecast for the rest of the day...this easterly flow of 50s dewpoint air is just killing the rain as it moves up from the south...that combined with a mess of a weakening disturbance down towards OK/TX is not giving us much lift, if any...not a good recipe for decent rainfall in these parts...the only way something beneficial could occur is if we get some sort of decent breakaway disturbance move our way from SC MO...but as this whole weakening trof shears/moves towards central MO...the better chances of rain will concentrate more towards the east of here...forecast details on the evening shows tonight...

I'm becoming more confident that the low dewpoints are going to leave us for awhile and as we head towards the weekend...the muggies are coming back...as dewpoints may head towards the lower 70s again...that combined with temperatures in the mid 80s means a more typical August feel returns....weak front due in on SAT PM also means the opportunity for t/storms...the models aren't very generous with the QPF...but we really aren't overly capped so there should be some decent storms out there in the later PM hours on SAT assuming the front moves towards us at that time...there won't be much surface convergence...so we'll need to rely on the instability to get us something...

Onto Fay which is being dubbed as fickle Fay...slamming EC FL now with flooding rain...parts of Brevard Co have received close to 20+" of rain...with Cape Canaveral...the AFB there now over 18"...Melbourne is in the middle of a non-moving rainband now...there getting clobbered with heavy rainfall...no doubt daily records are going to fall there...yesterday they had a record 5.91" of rainfall...they've had 3.5" so far as of this writing...here is the radar for Melbourne, FL. Also take a look at the storm totals...very impressive.

While on the links bandwagon...our FOX station in Tampa...has a GREAT web page devoted tot he tropics...lots of choices to play around with...check out myfoxhurricane.com
You'll love playing around on they're site...I love seeing the model data...including the GFS/EURO long range information...there is another decent looking disturbance in the central Atlantic that has potential to develop into Gustav over the next few days...

So what about Fay...well the slow motion has obviously created flooding issues...the track is now about on the east coast of FL...as of this writing...near or just north of Cape Canaveral...(which if the rains keep coming...may become a naval station...although right now they're near the center rainfree area of the storm. Fay really looks disorganized...but IF we can get it back over the water...there MAY be some strengthening...the issue though is that the water temperatures are not overly favorable this...why...well the slow motion...combined with he 10-15 foot constant wave action off the coast has churned over the ocean water...as a result...the water temperatures are in the mid 70s according to some buoy data...not that great for gassing up the engine if you will...see the TPC site for forecast specifics. Specific details on Fays' affects on central FL can be found via the newspaper in Brevard County...called Florida Today

In case you haven't seen this video...got this in to the website a couple of days ago...and it was the #1 feature on our website yesterday.



That'll do if for now...have a great day...sorry about the lack of rainfall...but then again we never had real high hopes for it...

Joe

Happy Monday!  What a great day...it looks like August is on cruise control...not really trying that hard!  That's fine with me...after being off for two weeks...it's nice to ease back into the forecasting routine!

Overall this quiet pattern will continue.  The storm system over the southern plains will lift northward on Wednesday night/Thursday giving us some scattered showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder...but nothing too heavy.  If the remnants of Fay track westward into Georgia...or even Alabama as some models try to do...the blocking pattern that results may force the southern plains low to lift a little bit to the west of the current expected track. iF that happens, our rainfall amounts might be a bit more impressive than it looks now...but usually, as these lows lift out, and get assimilated into the flow....they tend to weaken...and therefore focus the heavier rain bands into relatively small, but concentrated areas. In other words...spotty heavy rains.

Cloud cover will increase on Wednesday...and on Thursday...even with spotty rains...we may remain in the low 70s for highs!

Will hot weather return before summer is out?  Probably very late in the month or in early September...but likley only for a few days...and it looks almost certain that we won't hit 100 this summer....given the relatively green grass so late in the summer, and the very transient upper level ridging that has occasionally surged out into the plains before returning to the western U.S...where it has lived most of the summer.  The last summer that we did not hit 100 was 2004, and that was the third coolest Jun-Aug. on record in Kansas City.  I have a suspicion this one may challenge...or beat 2004!  That's a stat we'll have to watch for as the month comes to an end!

While on vacation, I spent a few days on Table Rock, which at one point this summer was 18 feet high...but has returned to within 5-6 feet of normal finally.  When I do the lake reports on Thursday night...occasionally we'll show a lake water temperature of 88-90 degrees.  I have always wondered about that...thinking it was merely surface temperatures, and that temperatures of that magnitude, particularly in a Missouri/Arkansas lake would never be that warm to any depth.....WRONG!  I experienced 90 degree water to a depth of at least 15-20 feet at Table Rock while we were there!  I needed Soap on a Rope!  It felt like bathwater.  Since the lakes down there have been so high...they have not been able to let the water out very quickly...so it just sits, and simmers.  That's the first time in the 13 years I've been going down there, that it's ever been that warm.  Minnows that assumed room temperature were floating on the top of the water each morning due to the water temp...and it took until about noon before the water was moving enough to clean it up a bit.  I have been there when they were letting bottom water out of Beaver Dam...into Table Rock, when the water was in the 50s!  Yikes...that's chilly even in August...I think I prefer the warmer water...but it was not as refreshing as usual. Still, Table Rock is my favorite lake...beautiful!  I took a wave runner out at daybreak one morning and the lake was like glass...pure heaven at 65 mph!

Oh well...it's only another 351 days until I get back down there...not that I'm counting!

Have a terrific Tuesday!

Mike

As I mentioned yesterday...here is some research involving the differences in temperatures between KCI...Downtown...and Pleasant Hill...the period of time is from Sept 1, 2007 through Aug 13th this year...this is a relatively short period of time to draw conclusions and the results during the winter months are probably snow cover skewed...remember there was quite a bit more on the north side as opposed to the south side...and the information for today will be concerning high temperatures...Downtown is MKC...first are the average departures in degrees

MONTH        MKC          PH

SEPT           +1.2           -.3
OCT             +1.5           -.1
NOV             +2.1           -.2
DEC             +2.4           +.5
JAN              +2.4          +2.6
FEB              +2.4          +1.8
MAR             +2.0           +.1
APR              +1.6          -.1
MAY              +1.4           -.6
JUNE            +1.2          -.6
JULY             +1.6           0
AUG               NA            NA

I don't think we're breaking any ground here in terms of the positive average differences between downtown and KCI...on average about 2 degrees/day...for Pleasant Hill..the departures were most evident during the winter months on the plus side...when snow totals were 2-3 times more @ KCI as opposed to the PH location...take out those 2 months and the average differences are relatively minor...typically under 1 degree.

Lets get more into the daily numbers...I then went back and looked at the daily differences...it was here that things became a bit more pronoiunced...I used a 3 degree difference as a base...in other words I compared KCI to Downtown and then KCI to PH...and counted the # of days in each month that the difference in temperature was +/- 3 degrees and +/- 4 degrees here is that information...

MONTH        MKC  +3/-3      PH  +3/-3

SEPT                   5/0                   3/3
OCT                     3/0                   2/1
NOV                     8/0                   3/2
DEC                   13/0                  6/1
JAN                     11/0                 15/0
FEB                     13/0                 13/0
MAR                    11/0                  6/5
APR                     7/0                   3/3
MAY                     3/0                   3/4
JUNE                  3/1                   2/3
JULY                   6/0                   2/0
AUG                    2/0                   1/4

TOTALS             85/1                59/26

OK what can we take from this...basically that there were 85 days...or about 1 every 4 days that the difference between KCI and MKC was +3 degrees or more...interesting that thorough the period there was only one day that the MKC temperature was 3 degrees cooler than MCI...for PH...about 1 every 6 days was there a 3 degree or higher difference on the plus side and about 1 in 12 days was the departure on the negative side...I need to go back and look ands see whether the MKC and PH days were the same...iow was KCI just running cool on the same day that PH/MKC were warmer...and again I have no doubt that the snowcover of this past winter season played a huge role in some of the daily departures...notice how the numbers really level out when the playing field is "leveled"
shall we say...

Want to take it one step farther...how about using 4 as the magic number...

MONTH       MKC +4/-4        PH +4/-4

SEPT                   3/0                  2/2
OCT                     0/0                  0/0
NOV                     2/0                  0/0
DEC                     5/0                 3/1
JAN                      7/0                 12/0
FEB                      5/0                 8/1
MAR                     5/0                 5/4
APR                     2/0                 2/0
MAY                     2/0                 2/1
JUNE                  2/0                 1/1
JULY                   1/0                 2/0
AUG                      0                   1/0

TOTALS            34/0                38/10

I think this stuff is sort of interesting...note the differences are getting more leveled out...only once every 10+ days is there a difference of +4 or higher @ MKC and only once in 9 days is that true for PH...notice how it's now down to about once every month or so for the difference to hold true for -4 or lower...iow the difference between KCI and PH was that PH was 4 or more degrees lower on any particular day...again it would be interesting to see if these days are occuring concurrently or not...

Other notes...the greatest daily difference between KCI and MKC was on FEB 19 with a +6 departure...@ PH the greatest was a +10 on 2/6..with several days of -6 departures during the study period.

Sensible weather...it's great! dewpoints are in the middle 50s...I think there was a day or two earlier this summer with dewpoints in the PM hours a bit lower...(upper 40s?) but boy this may turn out to be the best summer weekend of the year...and perhaps, considering it's mid August...this best mid summer weekend in years(!).

Rain chances are looking a bit better after WED I believe...getting dry out there...

Joe

Chris, our uber weather intern, left yesterday evening...his final weather project was a comparison of the temperatures over the course of the last 12 months at KCI/Downtown (MKC) and Pleasant Hill...he looked at the Highs/Lows...he didn't have an opportunity to write a full report for you...but tomorrow I'll be crunching the numbers and breaking down some of the information that he uncovered...there were some minor surprises...and granted we're talking about only 1 year of data...and during the winter months there were some statistically important differences, imho, but that can be attributed to the differences in the snowfield that blanketed the area in rather dramatic fashion for the last winter...again I'll try to do a breakout tomorrow...highs for sure...maybe more if I have time tomorrow to break down the numbers even more...

Yesterday I mentioned the chance of rain in the PM hours...and today we're seeing scattered t/showers off towards the NE of the metro...moving towards the SW...there is some sort of weak backdoor dewpoint front moving in...dewpoints in the NE MO area are in the upper 50s whereas around here they are in the 63-66 territory...that combined with 10K temps of only around +4 means little cap in place...not everyone will get the rain..some will...and actually there have been some pretty good downpours with some of the activity...but it's moving along nicely now...DH and I were talking earlier today that it' s been nice to actually hace something to talk about for the last week or so...

Next week we'll have something to talk about as well...later in the week we'll talk about the remnants of the upper level low (ULL) that now is in CO...that may drift down towards TX then shear apart and come up the 35 corridow...or something like that...so I've inserted mild POPS into the forecast for the end of next week...the other item of conversation will be the tropics...

If you remember, last weekend I gave you a heads up that things were getting ready to pop in the long range...and today a new tropical storm has formed by the name of Fay (the 6th storm of the season). Fay will be interacting with the Dominican Republic/Haiti area and potentially Cuba as well...this land interaction is going to keep Fay from going bonkers with intensification for a few days...right now the 5 day forecast, subject to MUCH error) is for Fay to eventually curl through central Cuba and the head towards the west coast of FL...odds are if this thing is really going to intensify...it'll do it once it gets back in the FL straits after passing over Cuba...so if you have interests towards the Key West area or SW FL...pay attention to this storm...it'll definately have its ups and downs due to land interaction strength changes...by the way...in my continuing persuit to give you information that you'll have a tough time finding anywhere else...here is a GREAT site for previous tropical storm/hurricane tracks...I stumbled across it a few days ago and was waiting for the next system to share it with you...for the latest concerning the tropics...head towards the TPC site...I'll probably spend some time on this tonight during the news after the football game...depending on the weather situation...

If a tree falls in the forest and nobody hears it...does it make a sound? Tomorrow night we're up against the Olympics on NBC and the Chiefs game on CBS...I think the crickets will be watching the other stations...gulp!

Forecast details on the newscasts tonight...

Joe

Last night we talked about the rain chances...especially for the KS side today...but color me surprised by the extent of all the t/storm activity up in NC MO...the KS rain is slowly spinning around and will wander over onto the MO side as the day goes along...so an at times wet...but not necessarily heavy rain event is moving into the area...this is somewhat, but not totally related to the main storm up in the Big Sky Country...however without that storm...I'm not sure we would've seen the t/storm explosion in the western plains last night...the diffluence (fanning out of the air in the upper levels) was indeed created by the Canadian storm...so that enhanced the t/storms to our NW last night...those storms eventually created a weak MCV...and that's what we're dealing with now...so related yes...

DH this AM did a nice job in explaining the forecast headaches for the next 5 days...the exact path of the ULL over the northern US will be key to our continuing rain chances for the next 5-6 days...the EURO has been honking for a couple of days that the system would be so far to the west of here...in CO...that High Pressure would overwhelm our area...bringing with it drier air...and a wonderful for mid August airmass into the area...the other models have flipped and flopped like a pancake on what to do with this storm and it's effects on us...

As I mentioned a couple of nights ago and reiterated yesterday, I didn't want to play that game...knowing full well that they would change 20 different times in the next 2 days...if this thing tracks into KS we get, at the very least rain chances, if it went farther westwards...then not so much...today's solutions from all guidance available as of this writing is that this thing is going to track sooooo far west of here...that DH's reasoning from this AM looks more and more valid...so at the very least I'll be chopping some of the rain chances/eliminating them entirely in the forecast for a few days later today as I peruse the latest information when I get to work this afternoon... I'll be looking hard at the ensembles and the EURO...

So with the potential of drier air working into this thing...we'll need to look at lows again into the upper 50s...as the dewpoints should come down...and with enough sunshine 80 or higher is possible...

Anyway...a fascinating unusual for August storm for sure...regardless of the outcome...it's certainly given me something to talk about for the past 5 days...which in and of itself is rather unusual for this time of year...

More later

joe

Last night @ 5PM I asked myself a question (on the air of course) if the string of 70s that I was predicting had occurred before...I sure didn't remember a previous forecast of mine that waslike that during August...let alone mid-August...and this is not to say it's going to happen...it all depends on how our Canadian storm moves in...and where it goes to be more precise...odds are it's going to break into pieces..which will be rotating in a counter clockwise manner around the main storm...it's possible on any individual day we can be dry-slotted...or be subsident behind a vortmax that moved through a few hours earlier...the devil is in the details...although if this thing cuts farther west...then it may not be that bad around here...

So here is some quick and dirty research that I did in the afternoon...going back to 1950 in the month of August we've had 12 different occasions where we've had a string of 4 straight days or more with highs below 80...here are the details

YEAR       # OF DAYS        DATES

2004                6               8/10-15
1997                4               8/10-13
1992                6               8/12-17
1985                5               8/22-26
1981                5               8/16-20
1981                4               8/25-28
1974                5               8/27-31
1968                4               8/28-31
1964                5               8/12-16
1961                4               8/20-23
1958                4               8/22-25
1950                5               8/17-21

So really not a common phenomena...but by the same token not exactly a rare beast as well...happening about 2 x's /decade...interestingly to me...seems to happen more towards the middle-later part of the month as opposed to the early part of the month...so it'll be interesting to see how this plays out...in 1974...that sreak actually had 2 days int he 60s so it can happen with the right combination of clouds/rain...

Onto other things...lets compare this August to last August...in 2007 we had 24 days with temperatures 90 degrees or higher...of which 4 days were 100 or higher...so far this month we've had 4 days with highs 90 or higher...and 0 at or above 100...last August we were 6+ degrees above average for the month...this August (surprisingly to me) we're a couple of tenths above average so far...but that should take a real hit depending on this storm's impact on our area...

Let's compare HIGH temperature for all the days...

DATE                2007        2008___DIFFERENCE
1                          94             86                   -8
2                          89             95                  +6
3                          92             97                  +5
4                          95             97                  +2
5                          97             91                   -6
6                        100            86                 -14
7                          98             84                 -14
8                          97             87                 -10
9                          95             75                 -20
10                        96             85                -11
11                       97              82                -15
12                     101             82                -19
13                     102             89                 -13
14                       97             74                 -23
15                       94             80                 -14
16                       97             83                 -14
17                      94              82                 -12
18                      94              84                 -10
19                      92              83                  -9
20                      90              80                  -10
21                      98              81                  -17
22                      95              91                   -4
23                      96
24                      85
25                      84
26                      88
27                      97
28                      98
29                      78
30                      85
31                      86


Needless to say...a huge difference..

We've also really started to dry out...so far this month... .02" @ KCI...we're now  1.33 below average for the month but still .75" above average for the summer...this storm may go a LONG way in determining whether or not the summer ends up "officially" wetter or drier than average...

Just some thoughts...if you notice I'm not talking about the next storm in detail...because in all honesty it's going to change 10 more times between now and FRI...and for that matter through early next week...if one run of one model to even different models does something totally different...it's bound to change again 12 hours later...so I'm not going to put any more credence in one run compared to another for another 36 hours or so...don't be surprised if rain chances are boosted or eliminated or added to any day from FRI through the middle of next week...and based on last night's NAM...this thing goes sooooo far to the west of here...that we get flooded with dry/cool air...which if this works out...means a great weekend...so again let's see where we are tomorrow...however...I can say that I'm pretty confident it's not going to rain 5 straight days...I need more time to eliminate the rain chances from a particuliar day...

First off, we're keeping an eye on a broken line of rain showers moving east through parts of central Missouri.  As I type this rain is falling in Pettis county, Chariton county and points east.  Not expecting much more rain to develop behind the weak front that moved through today. 

Looking ahead to the weekend forecast has caused quite a bit of uncertainty as far as when/where it will rain, how much, and how cool the clouds/rain will keep our temperatures.  The timing of the arrival of the shortwaves progged to move through the area will be crucial to whether our weekend will be rainy/cloudy/cool or if we could actually see some sunshine for a few hours during the day to spike our temps into the lower 80s.  Right now I'm leaning towards the cloudy and cool scenario, especially for our Friday. 

Friday looks to be the day with the best chance for widespread rainfall, although we could see some rain moving in as early as Thursday evening, especially north of Kansas City.  Heading into the weekend I think we'll still have a chance for rain everyday(30-40%), however I don't think it will be an all day event or be a complete washout for the entire weekend(again, timing will be everything for the rain's arrival/departure).  Also with the expected cloud cover and sporadic showers, I've kept highs in the 70s through Sunday.  The same upper low that will be responsible for spinning these shortwaves through the region will possibly still be stuck in place early next week...which means rain chances could still be in place for the first half of next week as well.  I'll wait until later this week to focus more on that part of the forecast.

In the meantime, enjoy tomorrow's weather.  High temperatures will be close to where they should be for this time of the year, in the mid to upper 80s.  Our weather should stay dry as well tomorrow...so overall a very pleasant mid August day on tap Wednesday.

In other weather news...the tropics, as Joe mentioned this past weekend, continue to stay fairly active.  A hurricane hunter plane flew into an area of disturbed weather just east of the Lesser Antilles earlier this afternoon.  Right now they are keeping the cluster of storms classified as a tropical wave, but may fly back in tomorrow if the wave still looks healthy or stronger.  We'll keep you up to date if another tropical depression or storm develops!

That about does it for today...enjoy the rest of your Tuesday!

-Karli