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by wxteam4 from Kansas City, MO.

Last Post 5 hours Ago


A Couple Of Wrinkles
Jun 28, 2008 | 6:42 AM
Category: Weather
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At least to our forecast today...some areas had quite the storm last night with rain totals well over 1"...there were also some hail reports and some stronger winds...just SW of Carrolton windows were blown out in a house and a 50' tree was knocked over...on the west side of Ft Scott...100 trees were knocked over with numerous power outages because of 20-40 lines down...metro rain totals were all over the place...just a few drops for many on the KS side to over 1" in some areas...

This AM's map is interesting to me...first we've got some cloud issues out there during the first part of the day...we also have some sprinkles/light showers on the KS side moving along I-70...so we may deal with that to start the weekend...


Then there is the REAL coldfront that will be moving in this afternoon...the surface map this AM shows it still up in NE...


Notice how the winds have already switched back towards the SW...the clouds today will keep the instability down somewhat...however with dewpoints between 60-65 a front coming in...again convergence should be weak...I'm wondering if maybe we can pop some storms along the I-35 corridor and points southwards in the later PM hours...this will be a situation where you'll be able to watch the trends yourself...if you start noticing some decent vertical development of the clouds in the PM hours...that is a good sign that someone will pick up some rainfall...I'm toying with 20-30% chances for the PM...

The storms last night...really didn't scour out the atmosphere as much as I hoped they would...and they certainly didn't give the front a push southwards...so that is why I've got concerns...especially for the PM hours...

Joe

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Member Comments Total Comments: 6
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bree29
Jun 28, 2008 | 9:25 AM

What about the Royals game tonight? Any rain?
wxteam4 read my blog view my photos
Jun 28, 2008 | 12:54 PM

My feeling is that, if any, rain will be winding down
wxteam4 read my blog view my photos
Jun 28, 2008 | 2:10 PM

Just a quick update...front is pushing into the northern metro now...just south of St joe as I type..convergence is minimal...but a few cumulus are popping along the boundary...isolated activity in the next 2-3 hours wouldn't shock me...you start to feel the drier air as well...dewpoints in STJ are near 55 nad it dries out more in SE NE!
wxteam4 read my blog view my photos
Jun 28, 2008 | 5:20 PM

This message is mainly for R-Dub, but if anyone else has any thoughts, please feel free to share. This is a Blog after all...

I read your comment a while ago about using a chi-squared test on our hypothesis for wet spring -> cool summer project. I more or less understand what you are saying and are recommending to do. The problem is that even if we did this, we would still not be able to use the data to make a seasonal prediction given preceding conditions. Just by looking at the results of our project, we can see that a prediction of a cool summer when we had a wet spring would only be right about 44% of the time. If we made the opposite predicition, a wet spring followed by a hot summer, we would only be right about 32% of the time. In other words, the results do not tell us whether we will have a a hotter or cooler summer based on having a wet or dry winter-spring, which is what we wanted the results to tell us.

Unless I am completely confused about what a chi-squared test will show, doing one would only prove a moot point.
wxteam4 read my blog view my photos
Jun 28, 2008 | 5:34 PM

Also, the problem with doing such a test given the type of data....while we have observed frequencies of whether our hypothesis was affirmed or denied, we do not have theoretical frequencies of what it "should" have done. The problem is that we don't know what it should have done. What the project was investigating was whether we could say there was some theoretical frequecy to be found. We were looking for an overwhelming signal of whether wet winter-springs meant cool summers or if it meant hot summers. As it stands, there is not an overwhelming signal either way.
R-Dub
Jun 30, 2008 | 1:47 PM

Chris...I would think that the expected (theoretical) frequency would be 50/50 above and below average. In other words, if the summer heat is completely independent of the spring rainfall, then it should go 50/50 above and below average.
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wxteam4

Mike Thompson, Don Harman, Karli Ritter and Joe Lauria make up the 4 Warn Weather Team at FOX 4. We've been blogging now for two years, as a matter of fact we were the first ever weather blog serving this region, and we're excited to continue to be able to get feedback from our viewers right here on our blog. Look here for extra information, trivia, and severe weather updates.

Member Since: 9/1/2006


 

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