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by wxteam4 from Kansas City, MO.

Last Post 5 hours Ago


One of my rules of thumb when forecasting afternoon convection after a MCS rolls through the region is don't...rarely do we get any new storms fire up again after rain moves through in the AM hours...the atmosphere gets totally turned over...temperatures rarely heat up enough and wind fields are at best erratic...however...another rule of thumb I have is that if a front will push through in June...stick in a rain chance...after all it's June...so a conundrum for the forecast...also watch out for elevated convergence areas when temperatures really warm up...jsut because the air is not converging a lot at the surface...it can be more impressive behind the front as you go up in the atmosphere...convergence is convergence...

I think the rest of the afternoon should be OK...temps are struggling as of this writing but should make it into the middle 80s...dewpoints are not uge...but should get close to 65...and our front which is still in the western plains as of this writing will start to accelerate towards us later this afternoon...now the RUC is forecasting capes of 4500 I think...its wrong...if you look it's also forecasting surface temperatures near 90 and dewpoints int he 70s...not going to happen either...so as the front comes in this evening...it won't be encountering all the instability that the 12Z RUC is thinking...also the convergence is weak as well...there may be an initial wind shift but the cooler/drier air seems to lag behind the front for a few hours...so where does that leave my forecast...

I'll be keeping the 40% chance of storms in there...many areas will probably miss out...my feeling as of this writing is that the best chance of rain is after 6PM...perhaps towards 8PM or so from the NW to the SE as time goes on...if your heading to the game...go...but bring an umbrella to be safe...hopefully you won't need it...I do think whatever blows in will be moving E or ESE at around 20-25 mph...not a training situation...so they'll get the game in I believe...a lot can change in the next 6 hours...but these are my initial feelings...

As far as the weekend goes...looking great! I think MT was concerned about a few isolated showers tomorrow PM...with the lapse rates and any residual moisture...quick perusal of the WRF forecast soundings indicate a convective temp in the upper 80s...tomorrow temps should be about 5 degrees cooler than that...and while there may be some residual mid-level moisture around I think any chance of a spot getting rain is less than 10%...

Temps over the weekend should be in the 80 to 85 range with lows at night in the 60-63 range...and dewpoints in the 50s to near 60...inotherwords perfect evening weather for late June...

Longer range is not perfectly dry...and there are signals to me that at some point we'll get wet again (MCSee) during the middle part of next week...anything more concrete than that has to almost wait till the day before the actual event...I think by now you've seen firsthand how these convective systems really alter things in the atmosphere...and the low about of forecasting ability all of us have in truly detecting exactly who will be affected on a daily basis...signals I (we) can see...specifics not so much from so far away...one look at the doppler storm totals from the overnight/AM activity speaks more clearly than I could...


Rainfall amounts ranged from 0 to about .4" at the NWS reporting stations...a pretty stunning void in the significant rainfall along the state line...

Hey if you're going to be in the Country Club Plaza area on Sunday...I'd like to personnally invite you to the Duck Derby 2008 sponsered by Red Development...this is when we dump 15000+ rubber duckies (they're so cute) into Brush Creek Plaza and whichever duck crosses the finish line first wins a pretty fancy Harley Davidson Motercycle...there are other prizes as well...each duck adoption is $5 and the proceeds go to Childrens TLC...I'm their spokesperson for the event and I've been busy promoting them for the last 2 months...it's gone so well that we're trying to obtain even more ducks for future weekend adoptions...yea!

That's it...will add additional thoughts if needed this afternoon should things not go according to my plan...also as an FYI...any storm should they form does have the potential of being severe...(hail/wind threat)

Joe
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wxteam4 read my blog view my photos
Jun 27, 2008 | 2:35 PM

AIR MASS WAS GRADUALLY RECOVERING IN WAKE OF THE MCV DEPARTING
ACROSS NE MO WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASING IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL WAVE OVER NC NEB. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS
PLACE MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG ARCING FROM CNTRL KS NEWD INTO THE
MID-MO VLY WHERE ISOLD TSTMS WERE BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY. PRIND
THAT AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES THROUGH THE EVENING FROM SC
NEB SEWD INTO ERN KS/WRN MO...TSTMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS.
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL GRADUALLY BECOME STRONGER WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE UPR WAVE...AND SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY WITH VERY LARGE HAIL.
ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP ESE DURING THE EVENING TOWARD THE KANSAS CITY
METRO AREA/ERN KS WITH DMGG WINDS BECOMING MORE OF A THREAT WITH
TIME.

foxntrot
Jun 27, 2008 | 4:32 PM

So, can we expect strong storms tonight, south west of the Metro? What is the new %? Thanks

Joedirt read my blog
Jun 27, 2008 | 6:17 PM

BUST! BUST BUST BUST BUST BUST

SPC has lost it! They have a watch out with hail? NWS in PH said the freezing level is to high for hail. Joe said low chance of storms! BUST BUST BUST! Once again, this will be a big bust! The watch will be dropped early becasue it is bust!

Joedirt read my blog
Jun 27, 2008 | 6:18 PM

Fox 4 will blow this off and blow this forecast, just like they have all week!

musicmom
Jun 27, 2008 | 6:40 PM

What do you mean that Fox 4 will blow this forcast? You just said that Joe said low chance of storms, and Mike just said low chance, so what in the world are you ranting about?

wbahner read my blog
Jun 27, 2008 | 6:54 PM

JoeDirt,

You need to relax, really.

Just because the SPC issues a watch, it does not guarantee that any severe weather will happen, or that we will get any rain at all. It merely means that the conditions are there.

I don't know what your problem is, but it seems like no matter what type of weather is forecasted, you are never happy.

foxntrot
Jun 27, 2008 | 6:55 PM

Why isn't the all mighty weather team her to chat with us, and give updates? The NWS and the SPC both say more likely than not, severe Weather fo us tonight!?

musicmom
Jun 27, 2008 | 7:10 PM

If it starts to get bad you can go to the main weather page, click on the yellow banner that says "Watch live fox 4 radar" and on the lower right side will be a live chat box. No one's on it now but will probably be very active if the weather is active.

Snowracer
Jun 27, 2008 | 7:55 PM

You rockin' Joe? Got a question for ya. The forecast that Mike has been putting out the past 2 days is confusing. Wednesday night he went 95 for Friday, then last night he went 80 for today. I think everyone was mid to upper 80s, right? That's a huge swing. I had to check out the other stations and no one was that extreme. Why does it seem like Mike is always the odd ball out and wrong so much of the time?

It would be nice if Mike showed that he cared and stopped to chat with the crew. Maybe he's busy with next year's school day.

Rock on!

Joedirt read my blog
Jun 27, 2008 | 8:02 PM

But what I am talking about is they have issued a watch, yet both Mike and Joe blow that off to mean nothing, and so did the NWS.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN EXTREME NW MO EARLY THIS EVENING.
INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY WANE AFTER SUNSET...LIMITING THE THREAT OF
ANY ORGANIZED MCS...IF THERE IS ANY MCS AT ALL. SFC-3KM SHEAR IS ONLY
AROUND 20 KNOTS...FAIRLY WEAK FOR ANY WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE.
FREEZING LEVEL IS ALSO AROUND 15KFT...LIMITING THE THREAT OF LARGE
HAIL. GIVEN THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE...TORNADO THREAT IS
QUITE LOW.

Joedirt read my blog
Jun 27, 2008 | 8:05 PM

One one hand, they will "wane" after sunset, but yet, the SPC says "they will be severe with large hail and winds." Yet, NWS in PH says that the shear is "weak," and the "freezing level is also around 15K limiting the threat of hail," yet SPC says hail could be 3 inches in dim, and winds could be 80 mph. I know it might not hit everybody, but somebody needs to get things figured out, because nobody knows what the heck is going on. My point is, SPC issued a watch, but yet everybody seems to blow it off as nothing.

Joedirt read my blog
Jun 27, 2008 | 8:06 PM

Also, if the conditions are there, why did the PH NWS say that there would be no hail or wind...they counterdcit what they are talking about. Even Joe did that in his blog above.

Joedirt read my blog
Jun 27, 2008 | 8:07 PM

Last night they issued a watch, and MT said "The main show will be tonight," but NOTHING happend - it was a BUST, just like tonight's forecast will be a bust.

Joedirt read my blog
Jun 27, 2008 | 8:08 PM

It is very confusing. Also, this station blows off the LRC, when they CANNOT prove it DOES NOT exist any more than GL can prove it DOES exist. It is a game they play, it is funny actually.

Joedirt read my blog
Jun 27, 2008 | 8:09 PM

I think the reason why Fox 4 blows off severe weather when it is not happening is because they don't want to be the station that has "wall to wall coverage," like Channel 5. Fox 4 has always blown off severe weather like it is nothing.

Joedirt read my blog
Jun 27, 2008 | 8:10 PM

Another thing I don't understand - they say a 50% chance of thunderstorms mainly after 10pm, and before 4am and some could be severe...yet the watch is slated to end at 10pm. The folks in PH need to cord. with SPC or somethhing. They don't know who is doing what.

Joedirt read my blog
Jun 27, 2008 | 8:11 PM

The forecast for the weekend is sunshine and "cool," but I bet you it will be rainy and cold! LOL.

Joedirt read my blog
Jun 27, 2008 | 8:14 PM

Ok, now I am very confused. They just replaced the last watch with a new watch, and it will be until 4am, and that lines up better with the forecast. Still, it will be a bust. Also, they better update their discussion, because that does not line up with their forecast. Now that they have jumped the gun and issued a different watch, I wonder if Joe and Mike will eat their words? I might eat mine words, and this might not be a bust - but at least I will admit that. MT will never admit he is wrong -the same guy who suggested winter was over on Jan 2nd. HA!

bebo read my blog
Jun 27, 2008 | 9:29 PM

No one wants to hear "It may, It might, or you might see!!!) What's up with that???? It MAY be a lack of CONFIDENCE.

cswxchaser
Jun 27, 2008 | 9:43 PM

JoeDirt,

You get confused alot, dont you?

Bebo,

I think y

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wxteam4

Mike Thompson, Don Harman, Karli Ritter and Joe Lauria make up the 4 Warn Weather Team at FOX 4. We've been blogging now for two years, as a matter of fact we were the first ever weather blog serving this region, and we're excited to continue to be able to get feedback from our viewers right here on our blog. Look here for extra information, trivia, and severe weather updates.

Member Since: 9/1/2006