wxteam4's Blog

One of my rules of thumb when forecasting afternoon convection after a MCS rolls through the region is don't...rarely do we get any new storms fire up again after rain moves through in the AM hours...the atmosphere gets totally turned over...temperatures rarely heat up enough and wind fields are at best erratic...however...another rule of thumb I have is that if a front will push through in June...stick in a rain chance...after all it's June...so a conundrum for the forecast...also watch out for elevated convergence areas when temperatures really warm up...jsut because the air is not converging a lot at the surface...it can be more impressive behind the front as you go up in the atmosphere...convergence is convergence...

I think the rest of the afternoon should be OK...temps are struggling as of this writing but should make it into the middle 80s...dewpoints are not uge...but should get close to 65...and our front which is still in the western plains as of this writing will start to accelerate towards us later this afternoon...now the RUC is forecasting capes of 4500 I think...its wrong...if you look it's also forecasting surface temperatures near 90 and dewpoints int he 70s...not going to happen either...so as the front comes in this evening...it won't be encountering all the instability that the 12Z RUC is thinking...also the convergence is weak as well...there may be an initial wind shift but the cooler/drier air seems to lag behind the front for a few hours...so where does that leave my forecast...

I'll be keeping the 40% chance of storms in there...many areas will probably miss out...my feeling as of this writing is that the best chance of rain is after 6PM...perhaps towards 8PM or so from the NW to the SE as time goes on...if your heading to the game...go...but bring an umbrella to be safe...hopefully you won't need it...I do think whatever blows in will be moving E or ESE at around 20-25 mph...not a training situation...so they'll get the game in I believe...a lot can change in the next 6 hours...but these are my initial feelings...

As far as the weekend goes...looking great! I think MT was concerned about a few isolated showers tomorrow PM...with the lapse rates and any residual moisture...quick perusal of the WRF forecast soundings indicate a convective temp in the upper 80s...tomorrow temps should be about 5 degrees cooler than that...and while there may be some residual mid-level moisture around I think any chance of a spot getting rain is less than 10%...

Temps over the weekend should be in the 80 to 85 range with lows at night in the 60-63 range...and dewpoints in the 50s to near 60...inotherwords perfect evening weather for late June...

Longer range is not perfectly dry...and there are signals to me that at some point we'll get wet again (MCSee) during the middle part of next week...anything more concrete than that has to almost wait till the day before the actual event...I think by now you've seen firsthand how these convective systems really alter things in the atmosphere...and the low about of forecasting ability all of us have in truly detecting exactly who will be affected on a daily basis...signals I (we) can see...specifics not so much from so far away...one look at the doppler storm totals from the overnight/AM activity speaks more clearly than I could...


Rainfall amounts ranged from 0 to about .4" at the NWS reporting stations...a pretty stunning void in the significant rainfall along the state line...

Hey if you're going to be in the Country Club Plaza area on Sunday...I'd like to personnally invite you to the Duck Derby 2008 sponsered by Red Development...this is when we dump 15000+ rubber duckies (they're so cute) into Brush Creek Plaza and whichever duck crosses the finish line first wins a pretty fancy Harley Davidson Motercycle...there are other prizes as well...each duck adoption is $5 and the proceeds go to Childrens TLC...I'm their spokesperson for the event and I've been busy promoting them for the last 2 months...it's gone so well that we're trying to obtain even more ducks for future weekend adoptions...yea!

That's it...will add additional thoughts if needed this afternoon should things not go according to my plan...also as an FYI...any storm should they form does have the potential of being severe...(hail/wind threat)

Joe