wxteam4's Blog

Tonight's forecast is by no means cut and dried.  We've been affected by numerous outflow boundaries throughout the day...and tonight it gets even more complex.  Not a lot of time for me to go into details right now...but I'll try to explain in between my on-air hits.

The afternoon outflow boundary lit up across northeast Kansas this afternoon...and has turned into a south-propagating super-cell that's producing strong winds, and torrential rains across the Flint Hills at 10 pm.  However...the low level jet is finally beginning to strengthen on the west end of the storm complex...creating a training area of storms across north-central Kansas. That is the prime location of the 5"-8" rains overnight...similar to the flooding we had two nights ago in north-central Missouri. Meanwhile...the upper level storm is starting to interact with the heat of the high plains...creating an eastward propagating MCS that is beginning to merge with the western end of the Kansas complex.  The result will be a huge MCS that tracks across northern Kansas/southern Nebraska...and right toward us.  Because it takes hours for the low level jet to veer eastward...our best chance for storms in the metro will start around 3 a.m.

Precipitable water is at 1.8"...very thick.  And the Topeka sounding was conditionally unstable...so the stage is set for a good rain event in the morning.  That should kill the chance for the afternoon rains...however...if by some chance the overnight MCS misses us...then the afternoon chances will be better....which is why I left a chance in the forecast for the late afternoon/evening hours tomorrow.

The upper level low rotates by to our northeast on Saturday...and with a dry westerly wind...we could still hit the low 80s....while mid level temperatures drop to +3C by late Saturday. The resulting lapse rates will create updrafts strong enough to take whatever moisture is available...and turn it into spotty late afternoon showers...very hit and miss however...and most of the weekend...if not all for many of you...will be dry.

Looks cool to start next week. Monday morning could be within 2 degrees of a record low!  But true to form..the heat and humidity will return by midweek!

That's is for now! Get ready for a drippy morning rush!  Don will have the latest on all the convective conundrum when you awaken!  Have a fabulous Friday!!

Mike