wxteam4's Blog

First of all, the storms tonight are forming on the eastern edge of the mid-level "cap".  10,000 ft. temperatures are approaching 10C (50 degrees F)...but more importantly the winds in the lower atmosphere are increasing from 3,000 to 15,000 feet...helping to slowly shove the storms off to our northeast...and shutting down the rain chances for the rest of the night here in the metro.  Areas just to our northeast will see storms regenerate along the edge of the cap for most of the night. The areas involved are generally 45 miles north and east of downtown Kansas City....where mid level temperatures will be slower to warm up...but by morning...most of the storms should be at least 100 to 120 miles northeast of KC.

For the rest of the week...until Friday night...the "cap" will be holding pretty strong...so our storm chances will be pretty low, in spite of building heat.  I went for 89 tomorrow...but you will likely see a few 90s on bank thermometers...and downtown may hit 90 for the first time tomorrow. Heat index readings will be near 95 tomorrow..and up to near 100 on Friday.

The new model runs bring the Friday night wave in a bit quicker...so storms could fire as early as 7-10 pm Friday night...and be gone by Saturday morning. That wave would bring dewpoints down, and cool temperatures briefly for Saturday...but with building heights, and drier air...Sunday should jump right back into the upper 80s.

Longer term trends would suggest a near normal July.  Precipitation will still run a bit above normal,  but it may not be well reflected at KCI.  Take June for instance...KCI has had 3.78 for the month as of this evening...while Raymore has had 9.9" and Warrensburg has picked up 17.6" of rain in June.  The upper ridge will try to build in at times...then back off...keeping a threat of mainly nocturnal/early morning storms in play....a fairly typical summertime pattern.  High dewpoints...and green grass will keep temps close to normal. So our overall cooler than normal year will continue to dominate.  June will end up above normal...but not by much.  The sea water anamolies in the Pacific would not support a sturdy and persistent ridge yet...so this summer...while pretty warm at times...does not look to be a barn burner...unless somtheing weird happens pretty soon...it should turn out to be a pretty mild summer, with the main concern being the potential for more flooding from the nocturnal MCS pattern.

Sorry for the late blog...the weather prevented me from going too indepth tonight. Active storms are still going stron to our northeast at 10:50 pm....and will take several more hours for them to scoot out of our viewing area.

Have a great Wednesday...and be prepared for the 94 degree heat index!  Summer is here!


Mike