wxteam4's Blog

All quiet in the area today as expected...lots of sun and once again low dewpoints...got to say it's pretty unusual for late June to have 3-4 straight days with dewpoints in the 50s...that's been the case lately but things are going to be changing as a real dose of summer heat heats the area...nothing extreme but our days of tracking when the 1st 90 degree day may be ending...as soon as WED...if not by THU...Evan Bookbinder from EAX had a great nugget of information from the AM discussion...here it is...

AN INTERESTING TIDBIT. THE FACT THAT WE HAVE NOT YET HIT 90 DEGREES
IN KANSAS CITY IS NOT AS RARE AS ONE MIGHT EXPECT. IN FACT...SINCE
RECORDS BEGAN IN 1888...THERE HAVE BEEN 11 OCCURRENCES WHERE 90
DEGREES WAS NOT REACHED UNTIL AFTER JUNE 23RD...MOST RECENTLY IN
2004 WHERE 90 DEGREES WAS NOT REACHED UNTIL JULY 11TH! MUCH LIKE
THIS YEAR...UNUSUALLY WET WEATHER KEPT THE MERCURY DOWN INTO THE
EARLY SUMMER.

So lets talk about tonight's situation...we'll stay quiet through midnight or so...but after that all bets are off as a rapid intensification of a low level jet...poking winds of close to 30-40 kts will be poking into NE KS and NW MO...this, like last night to the west, should result in rapid t/storm development...there is also a weak feature showing up in the visible pictures in western KS that may be a weak vort max that could enhance the storm chances later tonight...as they for the storms should move ESE to Eastwards...so the area that they form will be critical in determining how much activity we get here...keep in mind that the storms last night dumped a ton of rainfall in some areas...2-3" so there is the possibility of locally heavy rainfall later tonight into tomorrow early AM...

Then there is the issue of tomorrow PM...as a warm front/outflow may be straddling the I-70 corridor and lifting northwards...again tomorrow PM forecast is VERY conditional on the status of instability/sunshine/boundaries etc...but there is the possibility of severe storms and maybe even a couple of tornados somewhere in the area...reason being while the speed shear with height isn't overly large...IF the warm front is close...that means there will be enhanced directional shear...so that IF any storms fire up in the later PM hours...and they encounter the boundary the may rotate a bit more and create a spin-up...DH and I were talking about these chances today and the WRF is being aggressive with the helicity forecast from the 12Z data...so it's something that needs to be watched...I've felt for the last few weeks that we may get one more busy severe weather hit this month...we'll see if tomorrow pans out or not...again part of the issue is dependent on events in the early AM hours...

After this...warm humid weather expected for the rest of the work week before another nice front pushes in later FRI...with storm chances and a brief hit of cooler/drier air to kick off the weekend with dewpoints perhaps back into the 50s briefly...before the heat and humidity return later SUN and the week of the 30th!

I'll keep an eye on things for you tonight!

I'll leave you with the last words from Al the hippy, dippy weatherman who on his last weathercast said the immortal words..."the weather will continue to change for a long long time..." RIP George Carlin

Joe