All of Don's fans, I'm sure, feel a tiny bit sad for Don not having any exciting weather to report...but we're pretty happy about it.
A friend of mine has a good solution to this type of feeling that hits all of us one time or another. Get a mani-peti and buy some pretty underwear. That might work for Don!
We've been talking quite a bit for the last few nights about the weather up in Alaska...last night I had the pleasure of talking to one of the HMC's (Hydrometorologist Technicians) at the NWS in Fairbanks. Allura Weimer was kind enough to send me some pictures that she's taken and I thought I'd share them with you on the blog and on the air this evening...
We talked about what life's like there with temperatures being soooooo cold...keep in mind that our coldest temperatures here are -23...we did it twice back in DEC of 1989...with that said take a look at how cold it's been up there...
...IT CONTINUES TO REMAIN COLD ACROSS THE INTERIOR...
YESTERDAY WAS THE 10TH DAY IN A ROW OF UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER ACROSS THE INTERIOR. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TODAY OR WEDNESDAY...AND TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 40 AND 60 BELOW. A FEW OF THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS ON THE FLATS OF THE EASTERN INTERIOR MAY HAVE TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS 65 BELOW AT TIMES. THE COLD SPOT ACROSS THE INTERIOR YESTERDAY WAS 64 BELOW AT O`BRIEN CREEK ALONG THE TAYLOR HIGHWAY. THE LOW OF 45 BELOW AT THE FAIRBANKS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS THE COLDEST OBSERVED DURING THIS COLD WEATHER OUTBREAK AT THE AIRPORT...BUT FELL WELL SHORT OF THE RECORD LOW OF 57 BELOW WHICH WAS ESTABLISHED IN 1975.
ALTHOUGH THIS COLD SNAP HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT DUE TO IT`S DURATION...NO NEW TEMPERATURE RECORDS HAVE BEEN ESTABLISHED AT FAIRBANKS. SO FAR...THERE HAVE BEEN 8 DAYS WITH A MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 40 BELOW OR LOWER...ALTHOUGH THEY WERE NOT ALL CONSECUTIVE AS THE LOW ON NEW YEARS DAY WAS 38 BELOW. THE ALL- TIME RECORD OF 18 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES OF 40 BELOW OR COLDER WAS ESTABLISHED IN 1964 AND AGAIN IN 1971. THERE HAVE BEEN A TOTAL OF 11 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH A LOW TEMPERATURE OF 20 BELOW OR LOWER. THIS RECORD IS LIKELY OUT OF REACH AS THE ALL- TIME RECORD OF 37 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WAS SET BACK IN 1917. THIS ALL SERVES AS A REMINDER THAT THERE HAVE BEEN MANY LONGER PERIODS OF COLD WEATHER AT FAIRBANKS DURING THE LAST HUNDRED YEARS. Here are more specifics concerning Fairbanks, AK...over the past 10 days...
OK so those are the numbers...what's average there? The avg high is -1 and the avg low is -19...the avg daily temperature is -10...most of these days from the 27th on are close to, if not more than 30 degrees below average...today is the 10th day in a row with temperatures below -20 for the day...here is more information from a statement yesterday indicating where this stands in their cold weather history...as of now...somewhat significant...but it's been colder for longer periods of time...
TODAY (MONDAY) MARKS THE NINTH DAY IN A ROW THAT THE TEMPERATURE IN FAIRBANKS HAS MANAGED TO STAY COLDER THAN 20 BELOW...MAKING IT THE 31ST HARSHEST COLD SNAP IN HISTORY WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF -31 DEGREES BELOW ZERO OVER THE PAST NINE DAYS. VALLEY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20 BELOW THROUGH FRIDAY...MAKING IT THE POSSIBLY THE 13TH HARSHEST COLD SNAP IN HISTORY.
NO DAILY MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS HAVE BEEN SET...THE RECORD MINIMUM IN FAIRBANKS FOR JANUARY 5TH IS 64 BELOW WHICH WAS SET IN 1906. THE LONGEST COLD SNAP IN HISTORY WAS 18 DAYS IN DURATION WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 38 BELOW ZERO WHICH OCCURRED IN 1971...AND IN 1964...THERE WERE 16 DAYS IN A ROW WHERE THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE WAS BELOW 40 BELOW. THE MORAL OF THE STORY IS...IT COULD BE WORSE. When I talked with Allura I asked how people took things when it got that cold...basically most now heat their homes with wood...some still rely on heating oil...and basically you just avoid being outside for any length of time...the other feature there is the ice fog which is a persistent problem...I belief Fairbanks is in a valley...so the cold air settles in and doesn't move...so once that fog forms...especially with an inversion present...it's tough to scour out...
I wondered about how the schools do...surely they cancel classes right? Goodness knows nowadays in this part of the country they've closed schools for conditions not nearly that severe...well they're a lot hardier up there...I believe the temperatures have to be a lot colder for schools to be cancelled...however once the temperature falls below -20 I think they cancel recess and if the temperature is -20 or lower...the school bus alert the parents if they'll be more than 5 minutes late for a pick-up...here is an article from the Daily News-miner in Fairbanks...click on that link to see more about life there.
FAIRBANKS — It’s nothing but bad news for students returning to school today.
The Fairbanks North Star Borough School District does not close for
cold weather, though there is no outdoor recess at 20 below zero in
elementary school. And at 40 below zero, all activities that require
bus transportation are canceled — including field trips and
extracurricular events.
District school bus company First Student notifies local radio and
TV outlets if buses are running more than five minutes late in
temperatures 20 below zero or colder. The company also sends out
notifications if a route cannot be completed.
The school district said in the rare event that classes are
canceled, parents and students will be notified by local radio and TV
stations and on the News-Miner’s Web site. Notifications also will be
posted on the school’s Web site, www.northstar.k12.ak.us.
The news is also bad for people old enough to have forgotten school.
During the brisk weekend, areas east of Fort Yukon recorded
temperatures as low as 60 below zero, and a weather station in North
Pole reported 56 below zero.
Forecaster Don Aycock, with the National Weather Service office in
Fairbanks, said the cold spell is expected to stay in town until Friday
at the earliest. By the end of the week, Interior Alaska residents are
expected to get a break as temperatures warm up to the 20 below zero
range.
“It will be really cold through Friday, and although it will remain cold, it will be 10 to 20 degrees warmer,” he said.
The cold snap hasn’t broken any records, but Aycock said the average
temperature for the Interior this time of year ranges from 1 below to
18 below zero. The region also is entering what has been traditionally
the coldest time of the year. That period lasts until the middle of
January.
Aycock said irregularities in the various models used by the
National Weather Service’s Fairbanks office have led to inconsistencies
about a high pressure ridge moving into the Interior and creating some
warmer temperatures.
“Not all of the models are in agreement,” he said.
That uncertainty means the timing of the end of the cold snap could vary.
But there is a light at the end of the tunnel, said lead National
Weather Service forecaster Ted Fathauer. “Just as spring follows
winter, the end will eventually come.”
Temperatures are expected to continue to rise after the weekend.
“Midweek next week could reach temperatures near zero or slightly
above,” he said.
Monday’s ice fog wasn’t as heavy as it was over the weekend,
according to measurements taken at the Fairbanks International Airport.
Aycock said a possible reason for the decrease was a breeze at higher
altitudes.
But less ice fog doesn’t mean warmer temperatures. Aycock said
temperatures in the 40 below zero range will stick around until the
weekend, despite the clearing fog.
end article
Here are the pictures from Allura...and here email concerning what they are...
1. First picture is Fata Morgana, inversion induced mirage taken late November 2008.
2. Second is Fata Morgana from different angle, taken same day.
3. Third is sunrise on December 29, 2008.
4. Fourth is sunrise on December 30, 2008.
5. Fifth is same sunrise one hour later.
6. Sixth shows where inversion is keeping smoke close to the city.
7. Seventh shows sun setting through the inversion, tree is about 100 feet
from office window, and zoom was used on all photos.
If you want to learn more about the Fata Morgana click here...
Here is what it's like up there as of 3"45PM our ime...take of 3 hours for Fairbanks time....
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AFA is the ID for Fairbanks...they're reporting ice fog and -44 degrees...yikes... Live video by Ustream Now take a look at a live conditions thanks to Squirrel Cam...I'm not kidding...I believe this location is near North Pole, AK...
Watch tonight's 9PM newscast for more info concerning this cold weather...and something special as well...hopefully at 9:15 or so...
The question is how much of this cold air eventually gets to us...
Good afternoon...don't really know what to talk about today...I guess I'll get into the possible arctic airmass heading towards the middle of next week which the modeling is really honking about...the EURO has been doing this now for the last couple of days...
First things first...pretty quiet out there now...the sun has really come out there air here at the ground is very dry...dewpoints are in the lower single digits despite the south wind (albeit rather light)...
When I woke up this AM...I noticed that while all the other reporting stations were close to 20 I was down to 12...I looked outside and I briefly cleared out around 6:30...that allowed temps to crater by about 5-8 degrees in an hour...then noticed that @ 8AM KCI tanked as well...with a clear slot...those will drive you nuts...one brief hour of clear weather can mess up a nighttime forecast...thankfully I nailed the low temperature...but I'm concerned about tonights forecast...the air is, as mentioned, bone dry...temps today are in the mid 30s...struggling in part because of a lack of mixing I think...so the question is how quickly the temps will drop tonight...I think pretty fast...I'm forecast lows near 20 now...may drop that a few more later this evening...that'll be a newscast decision...
Only issue for tomorrow is whether or not we have clouds...it'll be another low mixing day with a lack of wind in the first 5K feet of the atmosphere...so I'll go with temps near 40 tomorrow...plus there probably will be at least some cloudcover...especially in the PM hours...
Then the temperature forecast gets tricky...I'm going warmer for WED/THU...taking the EURO at face value it would be cooler...the GFS has a nice cold shot as well on WED...however the NAM doesn't...or isn't as impressive with downsloping winds moving in during the PM hours...I won't get out of control with the highs...and just carry what I had yesterday...
Thursday has all sorts of warm potential (50s?) but something just looks strange about how quickly the models are warming things up...the EURO is colder...so will split that down the middle...the real warmth moves in on THU night...and I still think 50s are likely for FRI...there will be another sharp front moving in during the PM hours...so the timing of that front will determine if it's near 50 or closer to 60 if it holds off till eveing...regardless the weekend is colder...SAT looks like a repeat of yesterday...highs 25-30...then moderating by SUN PM...
The modeling is honking for a substantial shot of arctic air a week from WED or THU (13th-15th)...both the GFS and EURO have 5K temps dropping to to potentially -16 to -20C...both showing 1050 highs building through the MT...this would shove some pretty impressive cold air all the way towards the gulf coast by the end of the week...
Take a look at the EURO for day 10...granted it's day 10...but for cold weather lovers...it's a treat...
Now take a look at the day 10 GFS...very similiar...with some details being a bit different...
Should this verify...the potential of sub-zero lows is increasing by the end of next week...and odds are since we'd be close to the climatological peak of the winter season in terms of cold temperatures...it would be even colder than the airmass we saw in DEC...
The key will be snowcover...the EURO is showing a band of some snow zipping through later WED the 14th...if there is snow on the ground...watch out for those lows...again this is all speculation at this point...but I'm feeling more confident today compared to yesterday that something really cold could happen for a few days...those maps are pretty textbook sub-zero type nights and single digit type days....
Hello bloggers and thanks for stopping by...on this chilly Sunday afternoon...at least the sun is out now and it looks like we'll enjoy some nice JAN sunshine for the rest of the day...there is still a train of mid level moisture that may influence our low temperatures tonight...IF skies stay clear...it's possible we might see temperatures dip into the single digits overnight...those details will be worked out on the newscasts @ 9/10 this evening...
I think you know me well enough to know that my favorite season for forecasting is winter...mainly do to the possibility of snows here...I do enjoy the snow but realize that I'm probably in the minority in that enjoyment...they're a headache to forecast for but they are challenging and that's why I enjoy it so...my dream...and at the rate we're going...it may stay a dream for quite some time is for a storm to show itself early...i.e. 2 days before impact...for it to be clear-cut and defined...for the modeling to be consistent (yea...right :( ) and for it to turn into a nice 4-8" snow that is well forecasted...in my little JOEworld those things exist...I think they used to occur...but in my little JOEworld there's a salary cap in baseball...weathercasts get 5 minutes whenever we want...severe weather coverage doesn't droll on and on...and I'm not really sure what color the sky is...with all that said here in the real world...it's going to stay pretty snowless around here for awhile...
The culprit is an ever expanding eastern pacific ridge...once these things get going...they tend to stick around for awhile...and this type of weather regime has about a 2-3 week run to go...what this means for us is a pretty dry period...with more temperature swings...some perhaps close to like what we saw yesterday...and since the airmasses are moving quickly through the midwest...it's going to be tough for it to get really cold for any length of time...in other words...and intrusions are Canadian/Arctic air will last a day or two (and there will be cold shots) before they shuffle off towards the east...there is though a regime change that will take place..you see it always does...as eventually the energy in the Central/Northern Pacific Ocean beats down this ridge and/or undercuts it...if you want snow...you probably want it to undercut it...this allows cold airmasses to lurk and get drawn in to storms...if you want winter to end you want this ridge to fall apart...and the pacific flow to overwhelm the country...this leads to milder pacific air flooding the US...and that is not good for the snowlovers of the world...
Let me show you what I mean...here is a look at several maps from todays GFS ensembles...can you find the similarities...the maps are for the 500 mb level (18000' up) and the colors represent the anomalies...in other words how this particular flow deviates from average...we'll go every 72 hours...or 3 days at a time...here we go...
72 hours from now...
144 hours from now (6 days)...
216 hours from now (9 days)...
Notice where the core of anomalies are...near or off the west coast...and from the midwest towards the east coast...this all makes sense because when there is a ridge out west...more often than not there is a trough downstream. The ridge out to the west really pops and as a result the trough closer to us really digs...this allows a shot of cold air to move through...but since the flow is sooo strong it scours out quickly...in the last image the anomalies push more inland...what this means is that the warmth out west will spread farther east...the colder air is redirected more towards the eastern lakes and the NE...this will allow warmer temperatures to overspread this part of the country...probably for a few days at least...as MT alluded to a few days ago...this will probably represent our "January Thaw" that we seem to go through almost every January...
Now take a look at how the precipitation trends are affected...and it's not pretty for those who want rain or snow...
First an average of days 1-5...(thru the 9th)... Next days 6-10 (through the 14th)... Finally thru days 11-15 (through the 19th)...
I pretty much ignore that first shade of green that the model shows...(.01-.10") usually that's just GFS garbage...however it probably wont be perfectly dry through the next 15 days...however it's fair to say that I'm expecting below average precip from now through the 15th-20th of the month (we average less than .75" anyway) and my thought is that temperatures will be trending above average in that timespan...despite some quick cold shots of air (maybe even one of arctic origin)...there may be a couple of nice mild stretches in there between the 15th and 25th or so...the question is when we get our setbacks in that span are they minor blips or something short but more significant...as the EURO has alluded to for days now...(but always seems to make it on there day 10 panals).
So what ends this regime...well as I mentioned these things have a limited lifespan in the world of weather...the pacific flow will eventually take care of the ridge...and the seeds are already showing on the GFS at day 9 in the Pacific ocean...see those tight lines in the Central Pacific near 155 degrees W...it extends well past the dateline towards Asia...that is a sign of stronger jetstream winds...that will weaken the ridge and push it east as well...this will mark the beginning of the end of this western ridge scenario...
The concern for snowlovers is if that ridge is wiped out...and western Canada/the western US/and eventually the central US gets flooded with mild air from the pacific...that won't help matters at all...
Anyway those are my ramblings for today...hope it made sense...
The afternoon map shows it well...temps in the 60s surging towards the I-70 corridor...so enjoy the warmth for the next several hours as things will change again tonight thanks to a cold front moving in...the front is now in SE NE extending down towards the Manhattan area...behind this front the temperature now in Lincoln, NE is 27 and falling...the winds in NE are out of the NW with gusts to 30-35 mph....guess what...that's heading here as well during the evening hours...so another rather dramatic change is moving in. As of 1PM KCI has jumped to 55 degrees...Olathe is @ 63 degrees..and the Sedalia area may wind up in the the 70s...whereas Manhattan has dropped 2 to 45...expect the colder winds to increase between 6-9PM tonight as the cold air rushes in behind the storm that I mentioned this morning...
The satellite picture does show a lot of low cloud cover off tot he west of here...those clouds will wrap back into the metro with the cold air...and as temperatures fall...the colder air holds less moisture...as a result there is still the potential for some frz drizzle or a very light wintry mix to develop as the colder air undercuts the warmer moisture...tempers aloft really don't support snow and there is now moisture where the snow would form aloft...so frz drizzle/ice pellets may be what we see...still expecting very little of this...but if it's precipitating after midnight...we'll need to watch the roads again...
Aside from a few mid-level clouds tomorrow...the story will be temperatures 25-35 degrees colder than today...you can see the cold air wrapping into the area via the 5000' temperatures of the NAM...here is a look for you...notice the the REAL cold air will be off towards the north of the region...
We'll start moderating again on MON with highs well into the 30s and see those 30s linger through TUE as well...so this is a brief hit of below average temperatures...but in the scheme of things for the month of JAN this front really isn't much to write home about...aside from the contrast part of things. Another run towards the 50s are possible again later in the week before colder air moves back in next weekend...depending on the timing of the next front that's due FRI or SAT...
No significant storms showing up for the foreseeable future...
Here is the latest surface map...
In actuality the surface low might be a pinch farther south...but you get the idea...
Meanwhile lets look back at DEC...the month here was certainly a cold one...although a rash of warmth during the last handful of days erased more than half of the departures...shows you what a massive flipping of temperatures can do to a month characterized but one temperature regime...
Nationwide Temperature Anomolies
Nationwide Precip Anomolies
My vote for the craziest, more unusual weather for the month as a whole goes to the PAC NW...where Portland, OR set a record for monthly DEC snowfall as well as enduring 2 record low temperatures...here is the way their month went...there also was precip all but 8 days...however they ended up with 2.7" of precip...a full 3" below average...
Spokane, WA set a new monthly snowfall record as well with almost 62"...Seattle had over 13"...just a wild month in addition to the snows in Las Vegas, Houston and LA...also lets not forget the extreme snow amounts in the Lakes area...certainly a wild month.
Another great weather day today...if you enjoy looking at surface weather maps...as an area of Low pressure will be passing just towards the south of KC during the afternoon...what this will do is create a rather interesting temperature contrast from north to south as the afternoon wears on...as a matter of fact areas towards the IA border will be hard pressed to get to 45...while areas towards the lakes may make a nice run at 65 before the afternoon is done...
There may be a few patches of drizzle out there...since a warm front at the surface will be bisecting the region this afternoon...
Colder air is lurking...nothing unusual...but temperatures tomorrow will be in the 20s for highs...some 20-30 degrees colder than this afternoon...
As the cold air undercuts the warmer air/moisture...some frz drizzle/sleet/flakes are possible later this evening...you can track the progress of the surface low using the map below...
Still no decent storms showing up for the next 5-7 days...need to watch for a more impressive shot of cold air later this week or next weekend...
More this afternoon including a national DEC wrap-up for temps/precip
Happy New Year from the FOX4 weather team! I hope you all have a wonderful 2009!
2008 was colder and wetter than normal. We finished the year at an average temperature 1.2 degrees below normal...and 6.68" above normal on the precipitation. The annual snowfall-January 1 thru December 31 was 24.1". remember that is the annual total straddling two cold seasons. 2008 nationally is also one of the coldest in over a decade...all part of the flip toward several colder climate cycles that will continue to affect 2009....proof positive that there are forces both internal and external driving climate change, and that man's influence on climate is microscopic at best.....but I won't get into that can of worms on the eve of the new year.
Warmer air comes back over the next three days. Saturday could climb into the 60s again. The only potential problem will be some low cloudiness surging northward...but I don't believe they'll hold us down too much. Sunday brings another shot of cold air reminiscent of today.
The snow chances Monday and Tuesday will be tricky. We enter a split flow...as the northern and southern stream do not necessarily merge directly overhead. As a result...the storms will come at us in parts...and may not sync up here. I've kept the chance for snow in the outlook...but would not be surprised if this turns out to be a disappointment for snow lovers. We'll see...there's still plenty of time to see how it all comes together. The trouble with split flows is that if the two streams merge overhead...they explode into a major storm...but for now it appears that will occur east of Kansas City.
The position of the long wave upper trof over western Canada is also different from December. It will allow some Arctic air to drop south....but the faster flow off the Pacifi will also tend to shove the colder air away quickly...and the Arctic intrusions will be very shallow. By mid month we could be looking at a major warm-up...probably after the 15th or 16th. Then as the polar vortex over the Hudson Bay area reforms...we'll get another very cold spell in February. But I tend to think January will be a bit milder than December....and February could be brutally cold.
Just a few thoughts to get you started on 2009! Again...I hope you have a healthy, happy, and prosperous New Year!
This award goes to Joe Lourie for wearing that cold blooded four piece black pen-strip suit while doing the weather last Saturday. The crew I was with said he put his co-anchor and the rest of those on those other stations look like sick. We can to a conclusion that cool Joe must shop at Harold Peners on 63rd and everydbody eles must shop on those tired stores on the Plaza or that Men ware place that advertise on television. So Joe keep looking shape and doing your thing.
For a month that was so cold from a statistical standpoint last week...at one point well below 6 degrees below average if memory serves...we've been climbing the slope out of the crater of cold since...as of yesterday...we're now close to 3 degrees below average and after another mild day through early afternoon...we'll be closer to 2 degrees below average...pretty impressive recovery in just the last 5 days...tomorrow, however will be slightly below average...IF we would've had another 2-3 days...we would've finished off the month which will be remembered as a pretty darn cold month by most...but IF we would've stayed this mild for a few more days...then the month would've been from a statistical standpoint much closer to average...but again that won't happen...
Change is going to be the operative word for the next 7 days...and a week from now we may be talking about accumulating snowfall and our next arctic outbreak roaring towards us...so enjoy this nice little weather break...the GFS and to a certain extent the EURO is honking for a brutally cold shot of air sometime towards the middle or later part of next week...
Out there as of this writing we're watching a trof move through the area now...the winds have switched towards the west and will be moving towards the NW over the next several hours...this will start to usher in colder temperatures later this afternoon...and by daybreak we'll be back into the teens to near 20 I believe...plus it's possible we may see a stratus deck of clouds move into the area. Downtown KC is 52 now...maybe tack on a few more before temps start dropping...
Temperatures tomorrow will be about 15 degrees colder than today...this has been expected for awhile...however over the past weekend...there were indications of colder weather again this FRI...that appears to be not the case...so temperatures will start to modify on THU...back into the 40s..there will be another weaker front come through THU PM...that was the front that looked stronger over the past weekend...but again...that front now looks considerably weaker and a lack of snowcover to our immediate NW is allowing these airmasses to modify somewhat as they approach the area.
Next week...especially later MON into TUE still looks very interesting for precip chances...there are obviously lots of ??? concerning the weather there...but there will be as I like to say...players on the field...an upper level storm is due to hit the west coast by SUN...that will be the storm we track for our snow chances...plus we'll nned to watch for phasing issues with the jetstream...that will play a role of whether or not we see an arctic airmass plunge into the US...the players are there...we're not all lined up correctly on the models at this point...but then again the models aren't right for next week yet...they're certainly suggestive to my eyes at least...
The bottom line is that we need to get some more snowcover down to get these airmasses to reach their potential...
Have a greeat day...it's another DVD afternoon for me...and for you teachers out there...here are the details for the 2009 School Day at the K program...this is the nationally known largest school program in the country...no other TV station or organization can take this endeavor on...it's received numerous awards over the years...and this year will be even bigger than ever we believe...and we've heard that in terms of group sales...it's the largest endeavor in all of Major League Baseball...
THURSDAY MAY 7TH, 2009 TIME: 10 AM GAME @ 1PM vs MARINERS
Everything preceding according to plan...temperatures today made it into the mid to upper 50s...and tomorrow we'll probably take off about 5 degrees from those numbers but whatever warming we get will need to get accomplished by late AM into early afternoon...afterwards temperatures may actually drop about 5-10 degrees will cooler air spilling into the metro during the PM hours...
See yesterdays blog for the weather for the rest of the week into the weekend...
During the noon show....we talked about all the cold air up towards Canada...not unusual, obviously for this time of the year...but I have major concerns that this week of relatively quiet weather may be replaced by a return to wintry weather for next week...including the potential for accumulating snowfall and the likelihood of a much colder regime heading our way heading towards the middle of next week...the euro certainly has thrown some red flags up concerning this scenario...the GFS has been hinting for several runs about some sort of event either MON or TUE of next week with colder temperatures to follow...
That's about all for today...I've been working on 2 pieces for our new weather DVD that we're in the process of doing...plus in various meetings...so I'll keep this one a very (unusual for me) brief entry...
This is now my third and final attempt at putting together a blog...my computer at the house is telling me that it probably needs rebooting...so I'll make this quick...besides I want to watch this exciting game with the Bengals...I have a feeling Tyler is cementing himself back to 2nd string...or lower...status...this hasn't been a pretty game...I guess the question is will this be the end of the Herm era in KC...doesn't seem that the team is playing with any spark today...
Onto the weather which I know a bit more about...no real big storms are expected this week...there is going to be a storm developing to the north of here on FRI...that will usher in a nice Canadian shot of air...however with the snow all but gone south of SD...this airmass will modify more so than the others have that have affected us recently.
Actually the forecast isn't that clear cut...fronts zipping through will present timing issues for the forecast...this means that if a front slows down or speeds up by 6-12 hours...a 35 degree forecast can turn into a 50 degree forecast and vice-versa...so it's not a walk in the park...
Temperatures today are warming nicely...we're into the 40s now and should make it into the 50s tomorrow...thanks to SW winds...the air heading our way tomorrow is in the TX panhandle now...they are in the middle 50s...that about where we should be tomorrow...give or take a couple of degrees...
Tuesdays forecast is complicated by a trof that's going to swing through the area near lunchtime...temps will initially be milder on TUE AM...but start dropping just above the surface by midday...this weak cold air advection will be countered by lots of sunshine...so II'll play TUE about 5 degrees cooler than tomorrow...interesting to note that the air just above the surface is actually in the 50s tomorrow AM as a warm bubble of air is on top of us...then actually cools a bit...some 4 degrees C during the coarse of the afternoon...that's why I don't want to push the high temperature envelope too far tomorrow...
Wednesday we will be cooler...no doubt as a cold front sweeps through early in the AM...so expect seasonal temperatures with some morning clouds...IF there was more extensive snow to our north...that could be a real sneaky very cold day...(teens) but I think we should be closer or maybe a pinch above 32 that afternoon as the winds drop off in the late AM hours...allowing the sun to warm things somewhat...
I've talked about the snowcover now several times...let me show you what it looks like
It's quite a stark contrast to a few days ago...meanwhile the snowcover is impressive nationwide...take a look...not sure why it's being so generous with the snowdepth in these parts...but whatever...
Meanwhile the folks at Pleasant Hill have put together a nice recap of the events yesterday...take a look.
That'll do it for today...any changes in the modeling data...will be looked at tonight...and if needed I'll have a comment later...I'll see you tonight @ 9PM...
While today won't go down as seeing anything record-breaking happen...we're 7 degrees short of a high temperature...so far about .5" short for a precipitation record...it will probably be a day a research paper or two is done...just because of the way the day started...not so much with the storms...maybe not so much because of the wind reports...although some might look at the interaction of those features...but to me at least more because of the freezing rain that undercut the MCS rainfall...this to me was fascinating and I never remember hearing of anything like this before...my guess would be IF it happened before...maybe towards the TN/OH valley area...because of their tendencies to get severe weather outbreaks...but I sure don't remember FRZ rain being the dominate precipitation in the cold sector...one question I have is did the cold pool generation affect any of the processes associated with this particular MCS...in other words did it contribute to more rainfall...colder temperatures etc..
The storms that we saw this morning...while unusual for the intensity in late DEC here...weren't surprising when you remember that we were int he 60s with dewpoints int he mid-upper 50s and a strong front moving towards that instability. Take that same set-up later in the winter...like in March...and nobody would be too surprised by the outcome...especially when you consider how strong the winds were aloft...just above the surface...as the profiler network showed all day yesterday...any convection that fired would easily tap into those strong winds...and eventually with storms...those strong winds work they're way to the ground most of the time...
What was unusual to me at least was 1) the timing...fine for mid to late PM as we built what little instability we could build during this time of the year...but 4-5AM in late DEC...that's a trip towards bizzaro world for sure...2) the FRZ rain aspect which is truly, as mentioned before the stunner in all this...
OK...well the good news is that the roads are drying out plus they're still retaining some of the warmth built up over the past couple of days...road temps are still int he 30s to near 40...however with air temperatures in the 20s now...those pavement temperatures will come down all afternoon long...and while now there is no precip of significance here...that will be changing over the next several hours as the core of our wave passes very close by...
As I type this snow is breaking out to our west and SW...it snowing in the Wichita region now...that snow as indicated by radar is moving NE towards the metro...it should start snowing in the Emporia area before 2PM...and into the metro before 5PM...it'll only snow for a few hours...but as mentioned on the newscasts this morning...a dusting to upwards of 2" is possible for some areas...so that combined with the colder pavement temperatures by then mean that we may see slick roads this evening in some areas...believe it or not...our temperatures aloft are still well above freezing...so we need that to change...which will happen as the core of this upper level storm passes overhead or just to our NW later this afternoon...the 12 hour snow forecast from the RUC indicates 3-6" of snow...my belief is that this is overdone...we'll figure that out on the 5PM newscast...
What's interesting to me...is that IF this were the spring/summer...and IF we would've gotten the storms to roll through like they did this AM...I'd be preaching the atmosphere has been worked over routine...so that any redevelopment would be tough to come by...but since we're in winter...and the atmosphere when chilled like it will be over the next 6 hours or so can't hold moisture that well...I really can't preach that mantra in this scenario...it'll be interesting to see if any subsidence is left over from the AM's convection...and whether or not the snow holds together as well as it looks now.
This warmth of the past couple of days...including today's high of 65 will chew away at the negative departure from average that we've seen for the month...a couple of days ago I think we were more that 6 degrees below average...now we're 4.5 below average and after today will be closer to 3.75 below average...the month overall we be a chilly one for sure...but these last several days of warmth...plus the warmer temperatures expected to finish out the year for the most part will chew away at what was a rather dramatic looking temperature departure earlier this week.
I believe EAX has cancelled the winter advisories that were in effect...however new ones may be issued before this evening depending on how that snow band holds together as it approaches the KC area.
Oh and central and SE MO are under a moderate risk of severe weather...the area I'm most concerned about is the Bootheel area after a cursory look see...a squall line is going to move towards Chicago in a few hours where dewpoints are near 60...it's going to be another rough afternoon for the flights to0/from Chicago...the lake effect areas of MI which have been pounded by snowfall this month...the NWS in Gaylord, MI has had 100" of snow so far this season...and some localities have had more snow this year through Christmas than at any time before...which is really significant in the Lake Effect machine up there...now the issue is not the snow but rapid snowmelt...temperatures are in the upper 40s to near 50...there's dense fog...rain is moving in later...and all the snow has clogged up the drains up there...that's a recipe for significant flooding...
Wow...What a month of December...here's hoping JAN brings more weather excitement!
Morn later today...briefly...60-80 MPH winds roared through the area between 4:15 and 5:15 or so...numerous trees knocked down...thousands are without power...and some property damage...
Temperatures tanked some 30+ degrees in about 90 minutes...and now our winter time MCS has been undercut by temperatures below freezing...so freezing rain will become the next problem...
Warm temperatures should keep most pavement OK for awhile...however as the AM goes along bridges/overpasses from north to south will need to be monitered...a brief check indicates most are still near or above 40...but that won't last for that much longer...
Winter weather advisories posted to the NW of downtown KC...warmer temps aloft should keep the snow limited towards the very end of things...more concerned about the frz. rain situation...at this point.
I've never seen an MCS with freezing rain before in this area...there's a first for everything I guess
That's the big question right now...and as of 8 pm the radar is pretty quiet. About an hour and a half ago the Storm Prediction Center put out a Mesoscale Discussion that included the KC Metro for the increased threat that severe weather would develop later on this evening. Right now we have a decent cap in place...and until that erodes we should stay storm free. Once storms start developing, the main threat will be heavy rain for us...along with a threat for damaging winds. An isolated tornado can't be ruled out, however the better dynamics for tornados to develop are down in Oklahoma. Click here to see the latest SPC Info
Ahead of and along the frontal boundary is where we'll see the best chance for severe weather tonight and overnight as well(and especially South and SE of KC). Once the front passes by tomorrow morning the focus then turns to the threat for winter weather.
As previously mentioned...heavy rain is possible at times...combine that with ground temps that are close to freezing and recently melted snow and the potential exists for flash flooding. A Flash flood watch is still in place until tomorrow afternoon due to that potential. Most spots will pick up between 0.25-0.50" of rain, but wherever storms develop you could see locally higher amounts. Click here to see the latest FF Watch
The front itself will arrive tomorrow morning, sometime between 5-7am. Winds behind the front will turn out of the northwest and pick up some. This will usher in much colder air. Temps should drop very quickly..and by noon we should be in the lower 30s. This will also allow any leftover rain to transition into freezing rain or drizzle, sleet or snow. By the afternoon enough cold air will be in place to turn everything to snow. Right now I'm still not overly excited for much or any accumulation of snowfall...let's say under an inch at best.
Clouds should start clearing out Saturday evening and Sunday looks a lot better...with sunshine and highs in the lower 40s. After this storm passes us by, we should stay dry through the end of the upcoming week...with seasonal temperatures expected.
If severe weather threatens the viewing area tonight we will make sure to keep you up to date with the latest information possible...so stay tuned!
Otherwise...bundle up tomorrow...temps will be 30-35 degrees colder than they are right now! -Karli
Santa is now moving into the midwest...and radar from St Louis indicates he's getting closer and closer to MO...we'll pinpoint his location coming up at 10:15...
Weather data shows a tremendous surge of gulf moisture on FRI...with dewpoints approaching 55 degrees...concern is growing about some sort of severe weather outbreak in S MO or SC MO into AR...another dramatic day on SAT with a midnight high near 60 and a late PM temperature near 30...lots of wind likely FRI/SAT...SUN looks real nice!
Reports indicate that Santa has moved through Australia...Asia...and Europe and is quickly heading towards the eastern seaboard...a position update coming up @ 9:15...
Here is another poem I dug up from the webpage share-christmas.com....I only wish they would've fought with bigger pillows...
Christmas Poems Run Away
Snowball
Someone in the sky last night
Had an awful pillow fight,
And when I woke today I found
All the snowflakes on the ground.
I made myself a snowball
As perfect as could be
I thought I'd keep it as a pet
And let it sleep with me.
I made it
some pajamas
And a pillow for it's head,
Then last night it ran away,
But first * *
It wet my bed.
Little snow flakes so soft and white,
Falling silently during the night.
Glistening in the sun today,
Makes us want to come out and play.
We'll build a snowman, or maybe two.
Which wouldn't be possible, without you.
Pretty soon though, you will melt
But we'll always remember just how we felt,
The day the snow came tumbling down,
And covered every street in town.
He's on the move...reports from Australia indicate he's been very busy there dropping down lots of chimneys...apparently there are lots of good boys and girls down under!
Now I'm starting to get reports of Santa moving northwards towards Asia...exact position coming up on Santa Track 4 @ 6:15....
Got an email from Jason at the Pet Connection...here is another poem for you...Merry Christmas...
Twas the night before Christmas, when all through the house
Not a creature was stirring, not even a mouse
Now that was not all entirely true, we have seen a mouse
And many other creatures too
Crazy animal people that we are
We invite them in from wide and far
We invite them in in 2's and 3's
And with your support, we will ship them from over the seas
Mostly cats and dogs, a puppy, kitten, or two
Why in Room #2, there's a Beagle who is blue
His name is Kichiro and I know you will laugh
But he bays at the moon and he hates a bath
And up in the front where feline kingdom is in charge
We have a cat named Bowser whose as big as a barge
He seriously weighed in at a whopping one hundred twenty two
Take off the first 11 letters and the story is entirely true
We have three kitten rooms and&nbs p;many senior citizen cats
We have animals in hospice and those with bad stats.
We have dogs in every nook and every cranny
We have a dog named Dudley who really needs a nanny
We have big pets, little pets, fluffly, soft, or wirey hair
We have so many pets that we would like to share
So send this message on to your friends
In hopes that St. Nick does not skip us on this end.
Remind all you know and all that you see
To add to the shopping list something furry
Maybe something furry that you can bring home
Or maybe you can just send TPC a nice bone
Or perhaps you can send us a fuzzy little mouse
One with cat nip or a kitty hideaway house
Or perhaps you will send us a kind donation
One that is fitting to your type of vocation
Or come and volunteer to pass out hugs and kisses
We wouldn't recommend a hug for those that give hisses
But everyone else, give attention a plenty
Sponsor a kitten, a puppy, or twenty.
We want to make sure you are in our loop
We will share it all, including scooping the poop
With our bestest of friends, the ones that made it real
We will always give you the bestest of the deal
Thank-you and bless you for each furry head
That we were able to send to a home instead
All year long, our sanctuary has been cozy and warm
Together we have helped miracles be born
Thank-you for a holiday full of good cheer
Plenty of food and good friends near
>From Salsa, Lucky, Sela, Sophia
Louie and Peanut, Adolph and Mia
Selena, Roxie, and a shy girl named Sweetee
Colby, Sassy, and a corgi called Petey
Squeak, Luke, Gracie, Sasha, and Ringo
Midnight, Hannah, Henrietta, and then, Indigo
Pepper, Sparkels, Levi, and Ray
Ofer and Ali says come out to play
Don't forget Loki, Phantom and Pip
Sierra, Baby, and Boots love the cat nip
Chico, Mary, the puppy called Moe
Chuck, Bebe, and Sam had no where to go
Jelly Bean, Jackson, Burnsey, and Scrappy
Seamus and Rowland take a good nappy
Lucky, Judy, and little Pom Pom...
All wish you a Christmas that is second to none....
Merry, Merry
From your friends at The Pet Connection
Santa Tracking For You...getting reports from Australia of a Sleigh making numerous ups and downs along the western coast...exact position on the newscast @ 5:15PM...
Got an email from Rod...who knows I like to track Santa for you...he was kind enough to send in this poem for all our bloggers...Merry Christmas to all of you!
Joe
Aviator's Night Before Christmas
'Twas the night before Christmas, and out on the ramp,
Not an airplane was stirring, not even a Champ.
The aircraft were fastened to tie-downs with care,
In hopes that come morning, they all would be there.
The fuel trucks were nestled, all snug in their spots,
With gusts from two-forty at 39 knots.
I slumped at the fuel desk, now finally caught up,
And settled down comfortably, resting my butt.
When the radio lit up with noise and with chatter,
I turned up the scanner to see what was the matter.
A voice clearly heard over static and snow,
Called for clearance to land at the airport below.
He barked his transmission so lively and quick,
I'd have sworn that the call sign he used was "St. Nick";
I ran to the panel to turn up the lights,
The better to welcome this magical flight.
He called his position, no room for denial,
"St. Nicholas One, turnin' left onto final."
And what to my wondering eyes should appear,
But a Rutan-built sleigh, with eight Rotax Reindeer !
With vectors to final, down the glideslope he came,
As he passed all fixes, he called them by name:
"Now Ringo! Now Tolga! Now Trini and Bacun!
On Comet! On Cupid!" What pills was he takin'?
While controllers were sittin', and scratchin' their head,
They phoned to my office, and I heard it with dread,
The message they left was both urgent and dour:
"When Santa pulls in, have him please call the tower."
He landed like silk, with the sled runners sparking,
Then I heard "Left at Charlie," and "Taxi to parking."
He slowed to a taxi, turned off of three-oh
And stopped on the ramp with a "BOOGEDY, BOOGEDY-BOOGEDY-BOOGEDY..."
He stepped out of the sleigh, but before he could talk,
I ran out to meet him with my best set of chocks.
His red helmet and goggles were covered with frost
And his beard was all blackened from Reindeer exhaust.
His breath smelled like peppermint, gone slightly stale,
And he puffed on a pipe, but he didn't inhale.
His cheeks were all rosy and jiggled like jelly,
His boots were as black as a cropduster's belly.
He was chubby and plump, in his suit of bright red,
And he asked me to "fill it, with hundred low-lead."
He came dashing in from the snow-covered pump,
I knew he was anxious for drainin' the sump.
I spoke not a word, but went straight to my work,
And I filled up the sleigh, but I spilled like a jerk.
He came out of the restroom, and sighed in relief,
Then he picked up a phone for a Flight Service brief.
And I thought as he silently scribbled in his log,
These reindeer could land in an eighth-mile fog.
He completed his pre-flight, from the front to the rear,
Then he put on his headset, and I heard him yell, "Clear!"
And laying a finger on his push-to-talk,
He called up the tower for clearance and squawk.
"Take taxiway Charlie, the southbound direction,
Turn right three-two-zero at pilot's discretion."
He sped down the runway, the best of the best,
"Your traffic's a Grumman, inbound from the west."
Then I heard him proclaim, as he climbed through the night,
"Merry Christmas to all! I have traffic in sight."
Got up about 3 times last night..snowed pretty good for awhile...but with temperatures falling fast...all that moisture on the road, as suspected, has frozen in places...so watch for some ice underneath the snow....
Concerning the snow...I've got about an inch here at the house...reports in the area seem to indicate 1-3+"...those higher amounts are well tot he N/NE of the metro...overall the forecast worked out pretty OK...they're never perfect...but the general ideas were good...looking at KQ's live shot @ I-35 and Lamar...looks to be a bit more snow there than where I live in Olathe...
To tell you the truth...the storm in my opinion underperformed again in terms of snow...there was some potential for this...but it never really looked that great last night...however the front that moved in after midnight was impressive...temperatures are into the teens now...and will struggle, as expected, today...despite the sunshine that should be in abundance...
The good thing about this is that with a lack of snowcover temperatures are going to head up beginning tomorrow...and will be in the 50s on FRI I believe..also the dewpoints are going to soar...so while drizzle may or may not fall early FRI...the best rain producing moisture will be shunted to the east of here...allowing some sunshine to break through...it's not out of the question that some areas...perhaps south of the metro may make a solid run towards 60...the negative is that it will be very windy on FRI...and IF we get sunshine...wind gusts to 40 MPH are possible...aloft the winds just off the surface will be close to 55 MPH....
The airports in Chicago have been a mess...and today won't be much better...Chicago, Newark and Cleveland already have ground stops in effect which isn't a good sign for the way the day will go...it used to be back in the day...Newark was a decent alternative to the 'big 2" airports in NYC...now it seems that airport is chronically bad with delays...even worse than the other 2...
Skies here in the metro should rapidly clear this AM...a lot of cold sunshine is expected during the afternoon...KCI, according to the latest climate staement picked up 1.5" of snow...our total now is just above 6"...with no significant snows on the horizon...for the month, in terms of temperatures...we're running a whooping 6 degrees below average...something like that almost guarantees that the winter will see below average temperatures...we'd need to be pretty mild in JAN/FEB to get back to average...we'll see.
This next storm for FRI PM/SAT AM...doesn't at this point look like it's going to come together for us per say...another rather dramatic temperature change from FRI>sAT is expected...but in terms of moisture...the best rainfall looks to be well off to the east of KC proper...although we'll probably get at least some here as we transition into the colder air...
This will go down as a White Christmas here in KC...since KCI got 1.5+"...can't imagine it melting much today...and if you have 1" or more of snow...it's a White Christmas...the odds in any give year is 1 in 6...and the last time we had one was back in 2000...
Watch those roads and Merry Christmas to all of you...whether you're good or bad...if you know what I mean ;)...
