Well for those hoping for rain today...uhhh not so much...there are a few sprinkles out there...maybe a couple of actual showers but unless something dramatically changes...no significant rain in what is turning into a VERY dry month is in the forecast for the rest of the day...this easterly flow of 50s dewpoint air is just killing the rain as it moves up from the south...that combined with a mess of a weakening disturbance down towards OK/TX is not giving us much lift, if any...not a good recipe for decent rainfall in these parts...the only way something beneficial could occur is if we get some sort of decent breakaway disturbance move our way from SC MO...but as this whole weakening trof shears/moves towards central MO...the better chances of rain will concentrate more towards the east of here...forecast details on the evening shows tonight...
I'm becoming more confident that the low dewpoints are going to leave us for awhile and as we head towards the weekend...the muggies are coming back...as dewpoints may head towards the lower 70s again...that combined with temperatures in the mid 80s means a more typical August feel returns....weak front due in on SAT PM also means the opportunity for t/storms...the models aren't very generous with the QPF...but we really aren't overly capped so there should be some decent storms out there in the later PM hours on SAT assuming the front moves towards us at that time...there won't be much surface convergence...so we'll need to rely on the instability to get us something...
Onto Fay which is being dubbed as fickle Fay...slamming EC FL now with flooding rain...parts of Brevard Co have received close to 20+" of rain...with Cape Canaveral...the AFB there now over 18"...Melbourne is in the middle of a non-moving rainband now...there getting clobbered with heavy rainfall...no doubt daily records are going to fall there...yesterday they had a record 5.91" of rainfall...they've had 3.5" so far as of this writing...here is the radar for Melbourne, FL. Also take a look at the storm totals...very impressive.
While on the links bandwagon...our FOX station in Tampa...has a GREAT web page devoted tot he tropics...lots of choices to play around with...check out myfoxhurricane.com You'll love playing around on they're site...I love seeing the model data...including the GFS/EURO long range information...there is another decent looking disturbance in the central Atlantic that has potential to develop into Gustav over the next few days...
So what about Fay...well the slow motion has obviously created flooding issues...the track is now about on the east coast of FL...as of this writing...near or just north of Cape Canaveral...(which if the rains keep coming...may become a naval station...although right now they're near the center rainfree area of the storm. Fay really looks disorganized...but IF we can get it back over the water...there MAY be some strengthening...the issue though is that the water temperatures are not overly favorable this...why...well the slow motion...combined with he 10-15 foot constant wave action off the coast has churned over the ocean water...as a result...the water temperatures are in the mid 70s according to some buoy data...not that great for gassing up the engine if you will...see the TPC site for forecast specifics. Specific details on Fays' affects on central FL can be found via the newspaper in Brevard County...called Florida Today
In case you haven't seen this video...got this in to the website a couple of days ago...and it was the #1 feature on our website yesterday.
That'll do if for now...have a great day...sorry about the lack of rainfall...but then again we never had real high hopes for it...
Happy Monday! What a great day...it looks like August is on cruise control...not really trying that hard! That's fine with me...after being off for two weeks...it's nice to ease back into the forecasting routine!
Overall this quiet pattern will continue. The storm system over the southern plains will lift northward on Wednesday night/Thursday giving us some scattered showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder...but nothing too heavy. If the remnants of Fay track westward into Georgia...or even Alabama as some models try to do...the blocking pattern that results may force the southern plains low to lift a little bit to the west of the current expected track. iF that happens, our rainfall amounts might be a bit more impressive than it looks now...but usually, as these lows lift out, and get assimilated into the flow....they tend to weaken...and therefore focus the heavier rain bands into relatively small, but concentrated areas. In other words...spotty heavy rains.
Cloud cover will increase on Wednesday...and on Thursday...even with spotty rains...we may remain in the low 70s for highs!
Will hot weather return before summer is out? Probably very late in the month or in early September...but likley only for a few days...and it looks almost certain that we won't hit 100 this summer....given the relatively green grass so late in the summer, and the very transient upper level ridging that has occasionally surged out into the plains before returning to the western U.S...where it has lived most of the summer. The last summer that we did not hit 100 was 2004, and that was the third coolest Jun-Aug. on record in Kansas City. I have a suspicion this one may challenge...or beat 2004! That's a stat we'll have to watch for as the month comes to an end!
While on vacation, I spent a few days on Table Rock, which at one point this summer was 18 feet high...but has returned to within 5-6 feet of normal finally. When I do the lake reports on Thursday night...occasionally we'll show a lake water temperature of 88-90 degrees. I have always wondered about that...thinking it was merely surface temperatures, and that temperatures of that magnitude, particularly in a Missouri/Arkansas lake would never be that warm to any depth.....WRONG! I experienced 90 degree water to a depth of at least 15-20 feet at Table Rock while we were there! I needed Soap on a Rope! It felt like bathwater. Since the lakes down there have been so high...they have not been able to let the water out very quickly...so it just sits, and simmers. That's the first time in the 13 years I've been going down there, that it's ever been that warm. Minnows that assumed room temperature were floating on the top of the water each morning due to the water temp...and it took until about noon before the water was moving enough to clean it up a bit. I have been there when they were letting bottom water out of Beaver Dam...into Table Rock, when the water was in the 50s! Yikes...that's chilly even in August...I think I prefer the warmer water...but it was not as refreshing as usual. Still, Table Rock is my favorite lake...beautiful! I took a wave runner out at daybreak one morning and the lake was like glass...pure heaven at 65 mph!
Oh well...it's only another 351 days until I get back down there...not that I'm counting!
As I mentioned yesterday...here is some research involving the differences in temperatures between KCI...Downtown...and Pleasant Hill...the period of time is from Sept 1, 2007 through Aug 13th this year...this is a relatively short period of time to draw conclusions and the results during the winter months are probably snow cover skewed...remember there was quite a bit more on the north side as opposed to the south side...and the information for today will be concerning high temperatures...Downtown is MKC...first are the average departures in degrees
MONTH MKC PH
SEPT +1.2 -.3 OCT +1.5 -.1 NOV +2.1 -.2 DEC +2.4 +.5 JAN +2.4 +2.6 FEB +2.4 +1.8 MAR +2.0 +.1 APR +1.6 -.1 MAY +1.4 -.6 JUNE +1.2 -.6 JULY +1.6 0 AUG NA NA
I don't think we're breaking any ground here in terms of the positive average differences between downtown and KCI...on average about 2 degrees/day...for Pleasant Hill..the departures were most evident during the winter months on the plus side...when snow totals were 2-3 times more @ KCI as opposed to the PH location...take out those 2 months and the average differences are relatively minor...typically under 1 degree.
Lets get more into the daily numbers...I then went back and looked at the daily differences...it was here that things became a bit more pronoiunced...I used a 3 degree difference as a base...in other words I compared KCI to Downtown and then KCI to PH...and counted the # of days in each month that the difference in temperature was +/- 3 degrees and +/- 4 degrees here is that information...
MONTH MKC +3/-3 PH +3/-3
SEPT 5/0 3/3 OCT 3/0 2/1 NOV 8/0 3/2 DEC 13/0 6/1 JAN 11/0 15/0 FEB 13/0 13/0 MAR 11/0 6/5 APR 7/0 3/3 MAY 3/0 3/4 JUNE 3/1 2/3 JULY 6/0 2/0 AUG 2/0 1/4
TOTALS 85/1 59/26
OK what can we take from this...basically that there were 85 days...or about 1 every 4 days that the difference between KCI and MKC was +3 degrees or more...interesting that thorough the period there was only one day that the MKC temperature was 3 degrees cooler than MCI...for PH...about 1 every 6 days was there a 3 degree or higher difference on the plus side and about 1 in 12 days was the departure on the negative side...I need to go back and look ands see whether the MKC and PH days were the same...iow was KCI just running cool on the same day that PH/MKC were warmer...and again I have no doubt that the snowcover of this past winter season played a huge role in some of the daily departures...notice how the numbers really level out when the playing field is "leveled" shall we say...
Want to take it one step farther...how about using 4 as the magic number...
MONTH MKC +4/-4 PH +4/-4
SEPT 3/0 2/2 OCT 0/0 0/0 NOV 2/0 0/0 DEC 5/0 3/1 JAN 7/0 12/0 FEB 5/0 8/1 MAR 5/0 5/4 APR 2/0 2/0 MAY 2/0 2/1 JUNE 2/0 1/1 JULY 1/0 2/0 AUG 0 1/0
TOTALS 34/0 38/10
I think this stuff is sort of interesting...note the differences are getting more leveled out...only once every 10+ days is there a difference of +4 or higher @ MKC and only once in 9 days is that true for PH...notice how it's now down to about once every month or so for the difference to hold true for -4 or lower...iow the difference between KCI and PH was that PH was 4 or more degrees lower on any particular day...again it would be interesting to see if these days are occuring concurrently or not...
Other notes...the greatest daily difference between KCI and MKC was on
FEB 19 with a +6 departure...@ PH the greatest was a +10 on 2/6..with
several days of -6 departures during the study period.
Sensible weather...it's great! dewpoints are in the middle 50s...I think there was a day or two earlier this summer with dewpoints in the PM hours a bit lower...(upper 40s?) but boy this may turn out to be the best summer weekend of the year...and perhaps, considering it's mid August...this best mid summer weekend in years(!).
Rain chances are looking a bit better after WED I believe...getting dry out there...
Propagandists such as AL Gore insist it's occurring, yet this has been one of the coolist summers in K.C. in years. I've only had my air conditioner on 7 days thusfar. Nonetheless environuts can not be disuaded from their position. One such person tells me how the crazies/scientists explain this obvious disparity. Pointing out that cooler is cooler seems only to result in his becoming heated. Logic nor actual circumstances are able to alter a religious extremism whether they be environuts wanting to curtail or change my behavior to suite them or muslims willing to kill me for failing to accept their version of proper religion or even communists deciding to imprison me in a forced financial circumstance by decreeing their intention to control whatever meager assets I manage to acquire. A ferver that I refuse to accept, dedicated to whatever outcome sought for whatever reason displays a disregard for freedom, a basic tenet of this country and a primary reason for it's establishment. Antidisestablishmentarianism in a word. later gnome P.S. Picture looks just like me, you all know gnomes don't photograph well. even later gnome P.P.S.S. Could be this post is about politics after all. later still gnome
Chris, our uber weather intern, left yesterday evening...his final weather project was a comparison of the temperatures over the course of the last 12 months at KCI/Downtown (MKC) and Pleasant Hill...he looked at the Highs/Lows...he didn't have an opportunity to write a full report for you...but tomorrow I'll be crunching the numbers and breaking down some of the information that he uncovered...there were some minor surprises...and granted we're talking about only 1 year of data...and during the winter months there were some statistically important differences, imho, but that can be attributed to the differences in the snowfield that blanketed the area in rather dramatic fashion for the last winter...again I'll try to do a breakout tomorrow...highs for sure...maybe more if I have time tomorrow to break down the numbers even more...
Yesterday I mentioned the chance of rain in the PM hours...and today we're seeing scattered t/showers off towards the NE of the metro...moving towards the SW...there is some sort of weak backdoor dewpoint front moving in...dewpoints in the NE MO area are in the upper 50s whereas around here they are in the 63-66 territory...that combined with 10K temps of only around +4 means little cap in place...not everyone will get the rain..some will...and actually there have been some pretty good downpours with some of the activity...but it's moving along nicely now...DH and I were talking earlier today that it' s been nice to actually hace something to talk about for the last week or so...
Next week we'll have something to talk about as well...later in the week we'll talk about the remnants of the upper level low (ULL) that now is in CO...that may drift down towards TX then shear apart and come up the 35 corridow...or something like that...so I've inserted mild POPS into the forecast for the end of next week...the other item of conversation will be the tropics...
If you remember, last weekend I gave you a heads up that things were getting ready to pop in the long range...and today a new tropical storm has formed by the name of Fay (the 6th storm of the season). Fay will be interacting with the Dominican Republic/Haiti area and potentially Cuba as well...this land interaction is going to keep Fay from going bonkers with intensification for a few days...right now the 5 day forecast, subject to MUCH error) is for Fay to eventually curl through central Cuba and the head towards the west coast of FL...odds are if this thing is really going to intensify...it'll do it once it gets back in the FL straits after passing over Cuba...so if you have interests towards the Key West area or SW FL...pay attention to this storm...it'll definately have its ups and downs due to land interaction strength changes...by the way...in my continuing persuit to give you information that you'll have a tough time finding anywhere else...here is a GREAT site for previous tropical storm/hurricane tracks...I stumbled across it a few days ago and was waiting for the next system to share it with you...for the latest concerning the tropics...head towards the TPC site...I'll probably spend some time on this tonight during the news after the football game...depending on the weather situation...
If a tree falls in the forest and nobody hears it...does it make a sound? Tomorrow night we're up against the Olympics on NBC and the Chiefs game on CBS...I think the crickets will be watching the other stations...gulp!
Last night we talked about the rain chances...especially for the KS side today...but color me surprised by the extent of all the t/storm activity up in NC MO...the KS rain is slowly spinning around and will wander over onto the MO side as the day goes along...so an at times wet...but not necessarily heavy rain event is moving into the area...this is somewhat, but not totally related to the main storm up in the Big Sky Country...however without that storm...I'm not sure we would've seen the t/storm explosion in the western plains last night...the diffluence (fanning out of the air in the upper levels) was indeed created by the Canadian storm...so that enhanced the t/storms to our NW last night...those storms eventually created a weak MCV...and that's what we're dealing with now...so related yes...
DH this AM did a nice job in explaining the forecast headaches for the next 5 days...the exact path of the ULL over the northern US will be key to our continuing rain chances for the next 5-6 days...the EURO has been honking for a couple of days that the system would be so far to the west of here...in CO...that High Pressure would overwhelm our area...bringing with it drier air...and a wonderful for mid August airmass into the area...the other models have flipped and flopped like a pancake on what to do with this storm and it's effects on us...
As I mentioned a couple of nights ago and reiterated yesterday, I didn't want to play that game...knowing full well that they would change 20 different times in the next 2 days...if this thing tracks into KS we get, at the very least rain chances, if it went farther westwards...then not so much...today's solutions from all guidance available as of this writing is that this thing is going to track sooooo far west of here...that DH's reasoning from this AM looks more and more valid...so at the very least I'll be chopping some of the rain chances/eliminating them entirely in the forecast for a few days later today as I peruse the latest information when I get to work this afternoon... I'll be looking hard at the ensembles and the EURO...
So with the potential of drier air working into this thing...we'll need to look at lows again into the upper 50s...as the dewpoints should come down...and with enough sunshine 80 or higher is possible...
Anyway...a fascinating unusual for August storm for sure...regardless of the outcome...it's certainly given me something to talk about for the past 5 days...which in and of itself is rather unusual for this time of year...
Last night @ 5PM I asked myself a question (on the air of course) if the string of 70s that I was predicting had occurred before...I sure didn't remember a previous forecast of mine that waslike that during August...let alone mid-August...and this is not to say it's going to happen...it all depends on how our Canadian storm moves in...and where it goes to be more precise...odds are it's going to break into pieces..which will be rotating in a counter clockwise manner around the main storm...it's possible on any individual day we can be dry-slotted...or be subsident behind a vortmax that moved through a few hours earlier...the devil is in the details...although if this thing cuts farther west...then it may not be that bad around here...
So here is some quick and dirty research that I did in the afternoon...going back to 1950 in the month of August we've had 12 different occasions where we've had a string of 4 straight days or more with highs below 80...here are the details
So really not a common phenomena...but by the same token not exactly a rare beast as well...happening about 2 x's /decade...interestingly to me...seems to happen more towards the middle-later part of the month as opposed to the early part of the month...so it'll be interesting to see how this plays out...in 1974...that sreak actually had 2 days int he 60s so it can happen with the right combination of clouds/rain...
Onto other things...lets compare this August to last August...in 2007 we had 24 days with temperatures 90 degrees or higher...of which 4 days were 100 or higher...so far this month we've had 4 days with highs 90 or higher...and 0 at or above 100...last August we were 6+ degrees above average for the month...this August (surprisingly to me) we're a couple of tenths above average so far...but that should take a real hit depending on this storm's impact on our area...
Let's compare HIGH temperature for all the days...
We've also really started to dry out...so far this month... .02" @ KCI...we're now 1.33 below average for the month but still .75" above average for the summer...this storm may go a LONG way in determining whether or not the summer ends up "officially" wetter or drier than average...
Just some thoughts...if you notice I'm not talking about the next storm in detail...because in all honesty it's going to change 10 more times between now and FRI...and for that matter through early next week...if one run of one model to even different models does something totally different...it's bound to change again 12 hours later...so I'm not going to put any more credence in one run compared to another for another 36 hours or so...don't be surprised if rain chances are boosted or eliminated or added to any day from FRI through the middle of next week...and based on last night's NAM...this thing goes sooooo far to the west of here...that we get flooded with dry/cool air...which if this works out...means a great weekend...so again let's see where we are tomorrow...however...I can say that I'm pretty confident it's not going to rain 5 straight days...I need more time to eliminate the rain chances from a particuliar day...
First off, we're keeping an eye on a broken line of rain showers moving east through parts of central Missouri. As I type this rain is falling in Pettis county, Chariton county and points east. Not expecting much more rain to develop behind the weak front that moved through today.
Looking ahead to the weekend forecast has caused quite a bit of uncertainty as far as when/where it will rain, how much, and how cool the clouds/rain will keep our temperatures. The timing of the arrival of the shortwaves progged to move through the area will be crucial to whether our weekend will be rainy/cloudy/cool or if we could actually see some sunshine for a few hours during the day to spike our temps into the lower 80s. Right now I'm leaning towards the cloudy and cool scenario, especially for our Friday.
Friday looks to be the day with the best chance for widespread rainfall, although we could see some rain moving in as early as Thursday evening, especially north of Kansas City. Heading into the weekend I think we'll still have a chance for rain everyday(30-40%), however I don't think it will be an all day event or be a complete washout for the entire weekend(again, timing will be everything for the rain's arrival/departure). Also with the expected cloud cover and sporadic showers, I've kept highs in the 70s through Sunday. The same upper low that will be responsible for spinning these shortwaves through the region will possibly still be stuck in place early next week...which means rain chances could still be in place for the first half of next week as well. I'll wait until later this week to focus more on that part of the forecast.
In the meantime, enjoy tomorrow's weather. High temperatures will be close to where they should be for this time of the year, in the mid to upper 80s. Our weather should stay dry as well tomorrow...so overall a very pleasant mid August day on tap Wednesday.
In other weather news...the tropics, as Joe mentioned this past weekend, continue to stay fairly active. A hurricane hunter plane flew into an area of disturbed weather just east of the Lesser Antilles earlier this afternoon. Right now they are keeping the cluster of storms classified as a tropical wave, but may fly back in tomorrow if the wave still looks healthy or stronger. We'll keep you up to date if another tropical depression or storm develops!
That about does it for today...enjoy the rest of your Tuesday!
What's with the poor forecasting? I know I heard Karli talking about rain moving down from Nebraska, last night. Where did it go? The same thing happens over and over with Mike Thompson. Am I wrong, but is the only way they can tell what the weather is going to be is to look outside before they give the weather report? I realize that in this part of the country, the weather can change in a matter of minutes, but isn't meteorology a science?
Back in college...my senior paper dealt with the tropics...in particular Hurricane Allen that was a monster at one point in the Gulf Of Mexico...it occurred back in 1980 and was (at that time) a rare category 5 hurricane...it's still one of the strongest on record with winds at one point upwards of 190 MPH (I still have an old teletype recon report of the pilot reporting wind gusts to 232 at flight level and never experiencing that before)...it's pressure got to 26.54" at one point...and it achieved CAT 5 status 3 separate times. I actually went to the NWS office in Brownsville to research the storm as well...granted I was on Padre Island for spring break at the time but I still went to the office :)...an amazing storm...anyway the tropics were one of my passions growing up and being fascinated by weather...back east...we really didn't concern ourselves much with them...I remember being hit by Gloria and Bob...but typically, despite the movies, and the crazy people of TV...the northeast usually feels the fringes of these storms...but I digress...
I bring this up because we are entering the heart of the tropical season...it's been active so far with 5 named storms...the average is 5 storms by SEPTEMBER 5th...so we're running fast for sure...here is a chart from the TPC Climatology folks showing how from MId August through September things are supposed to get busy...
The favored areas for tropical storm formation gradually work there way westwards as the season peaks then return eastwards as the season winds down...here are the most favored areas for August...
There is a reason why all bring all this up....the modeling is screaming that things are about to get more active...and granted the GFS is weak when it comes to these things...but I think this time it's more clued in...one look at the satellite pics of the Atlantic show disturbances are becoming more active and water temperatures are maxing out in the formation areas...also wind shear, which is a killer for these weak systems, is going to be reduced as the upper atmospheric patterns tend to reorganize into a situation that is favorable for the formation of depressions...which is typically step #1 to getting a named storm. Here is a look at the GFS late week portrayal of whats potentially ahead in terms of systems...
Now our weather which is showing signs of settling down for awhile and then venturing into bizarre world heading towards next weekend...the EURO has been persistent for 3 days and the GFS has hinted and now is full bore on some weird upper level low that would be VERY unusual for this time of year to drop out of the northern plains and settle on top of this region...this would mean several days of cool and potentially for some...very wet weather towards next weekend...this will be dropping out of Canada...moving into the northern plains and according to the GFS at least..settle right on top of us for a couple of days...
I don't recall seeing this type of feature during this time of year before...if it was coming from the west or SW I woouldn't be shocked...but to take the track that the models are suggesting...that would be highly unusual...and would be something to really talk about if it happens...certainly something to watch out for as the week goes along...this would certainly create a large rain cooled airmass and also give weird storm motions to whatever would develop depending on the position of the ULL...iow if your north of ULL the rain would move from east to west...it could get real interesting around the plains next weekend if the modelling is close to real...just a long range heads up for you...
Forecast details, as usual will be handled on the shows tonight...rain chances are still there this week...but there is nothing real concrete at this point...I do think something can pop on TUE...then again later in the week...
One of the things that I talked about last night was how last weekend temperatures were approaching 100 and this weekend...or at least part of it...some areas would struggle to be 70 in the rain cooled air...and sure enough lots of 60s showing up on the map as of this writing all because of rain-cooled air...last night I made sure to show you the dewpoints...they were near 60...and we talked about how the rain would initially evaporate...cool the airmass down and create this pocket of cool August weather...my timing was about 3 hours off but overall looking at radar...just a bizarre weather day...
This AM...you could just tell that the rain was going stop moving east at some point...would it be Topeka...Lawrence or the State Line...well it looks like the main blob is stopping it's eastward shove in the Lawrence area....there are certainly lighter showers in the metro...and sunshine well of to the east of here where temperatures should get into the 80s...fascinating weather day for early August when the weather is typically in snoozeville...in some ways frustrating as well now...because if it's going to be cool and cloudy...might as well rain a bunch...and for many metro folk...not going to play out that way...
Rainfall amounts from Ottawa top Topeka to Marysville, KS westward are well over .5"...and some will get up to 4+" of rain out there...unless there is a massive eastward shift...amounts in the metro for the rest of the afternoon will range from a trace to .5"+ in SW JOCO...so far...Olathe has had a trace and KCI is at .01" I believe...so it won't be a deluge by no stretch of the imagination around here...the radar really tells the best story...it's pretty amazing to look at really...a true have and have not scenario playing out out there...and here is the latest surface map that should automatically update for you as the afternoon goes along... Is this truly it however...a concern I have is that the low level jet gets going and pointed right at us this evening into overnight tonight...so there may yet still be some beneficial rainfall for the KC Metro area overnight tonight...the RUC wind fields are actually rather encouraging in this regard...so let's not totally let our guard down that this will be a non event for the metro...hopefully we'll get to share in the rainfall with our friends off to the west of here...what rain is out there should end by tomorrow AM...tomorrow PM should be OK with highs near 80...
Again a glaring feature of the modelling this AM is the lack of any real sustained heat...and every indication continues to point to last wekend being the worst of the summer time heat around here...I'm sure we've got a day or 2 heading to 95 down the road...I don't see them yet though...as a matter of fact...botth the GFS and the EURO have some strange cut-off low droppiong in from Canada and languishing around in the northern/central plains around day 7. Now if that feature stays in the Dakotas then maybe we could heat up for a few days due to a drier/hotter W/SW flow...but that is just speculation at this point...
Have a good day...or a good rain depending on your location and perspective...I'm heading to a storm chaser party this afternoon as we review the season that was...should get to see some neat videos and hear some good stories...updates as necessary this evening...
The World Meteorological Organization is
coordinating efforts by China and other countries to provide accurate
weather information for the upcoming Beijing Olympics. WMO says China
has installed a new geostationary satellite, at a cost of nearly $1
billion, which will enhance weather forecasting ability. Lisa Schlein
reports from WMO headquarters in Geneva.
An Olympic weather satellite launch at Taiyuan Satellite Launch Center in northern Shanxi Province, 27 May 2008The
success of the Beijing Olympics will largely be determined by athletic
prowess and record setting results. But, Director of Research at the
World Meteorological Organization, Leonard Barrie, tells VOA, the
weather can make or break a sporting event.
"Weather affects the
conditions in which the athletes have to perform," said Leonard Barrie.
"A thunderstorm in the middle of a 100 yard dash is not very desirable,
but inevitable in many cases."
As it turns out, thunderstorms
are hard to predict. But, Barrie says other weather phenomena can be
forecast with a great degree of accuracy several days in advance.
He
says many countries such as Australia, Canada, France, Japan and the
United States have expertise in weather forecasting and have brought
their most sophisticated systems to Beijing. He says they are doing
unique high resolution forecasting for the six to 36-hour period.
"They
attempt to tell the organizers and the athletes and their managers what
is expected as far as severe weather that would affect them-high winds
and precipitation, rain," he said. "And then, on time scales from six
to zero hours, we have something called the Now Casting project."
Beijing Olympic national stadium, known as Bird's Nest, covered by haze, 28 Jul 2008In
Now Casting, Barrie explains meteorologists use weather radar to locate
where rain or thunderstorms may be occurring. With this information, he
says it is possible to know when the bad weather can be expected to
arrive in Beijing.
The Olympic organizers have said they would
try certain measures to stop the rain from falling and spoiling
championship events. Barrie pours cold water on this plan.
"Weather modification has very limited number of true successes on record," said Barrie.
So
as not to throw a damper on the event, Barrie notes the weather
forecast indicates that the opening day of the summer games will have
very reasonable weather. But, he adds, he does not know whether there
will be a thunderstorm. That, he say, is unpredictable.
While tonight looks wonderful weather wise, tomorrow may not look quite as good. But some uncertainty exists and makes the forecast somewhat difficult.
As of right now, a short wave is moving through the southeast corner Wyoming, initiating convection on its way. You can clearly see the short wave in water vapor imagery as well as the convection associated with it on radar. Surprising as it may seem, it is this area of convection that could turn our Saturday cloudy and wet. We are fairly certain that the storms will move due east until it crosses over into Nebraska within the next couple of hours, then it will turn southeast and roll through central Nebraska. We are expecting the storm to be crossing over into north central/northeast Kansas by tomorrow (Saturday) morning. We know the storm will make it from Wyoming to Missouri because of the low level jet this evening, which will help to keep the convection going overnight.
The uncertainty with the forecast lies in the northwest flow in position over the U.S. It is the northwest flow that makes timing the onset of the storms and the placement when they reach the area, very difficult to forecast. The storms could bull's-eye downtown in the afternoon, graze the western edge of the greater metro area around midday, or miss us completely.
The other factor in the forecast is the model agreement. If the short-term models have no clue and do not agree at all, then we are no better off. But fortunately, nearly every model is in agreement. That agreement is that Kansas City is bull's-eyed sometime after midday. But, as you very well know, models can be wrong, even if they are in near complete agreement. And this is even more of an issue given the northwest flow. But for now, we are gonna go with the models.
I would also like to point out that we could have a midnight high with this situation. As that rain gets closer, it will be raining into the atmosphere above our heads, but we will not be feeling it on the ground. This is because the rain is evaporating back into gaseous form, and by doing so, the evaporation process steals energy from the atmosphere, and therefore cools the air. So we could see temperatures drop off slowly throughout the day. A midnight high would likely only happen if the rain got here sooner than expected.
For a more updated forecast, you can watch Joe's weathercasts later tonight. Or for an even more updated forecast, you can see him again tomorrow morning.
Now on to something from the climate department. The National Climate Data Center, an office within NOAA, has released their U.S. National Climate Summary for the month of July. This report contains many graphics and breakdowns for the average temperatures and precipitation in the U.S. You can look at the nation for just the last month, the last 3 months, year to date and other time periods. You can also look at the national breakdowns by division, state, region, and the nation as a whole. It is a pretty interesting site that is updated monthly and I encourage you to visit the site to see the whole report for yourself. Here are some of the things I found interesting.
I'm looking at the breakdown for just the month of July, at the graphic for the temperature breakdown by division. You will notice that the middle of the country has been cooler than average, but that's not what I want to draw your attention to. If you will notice the U.S.-Mexico border from the Gulf of Mexico all the way inland to south central Arizona. It was below or MUCH below average in those divisions during the month of July. Now the only thing I can think of to explain this anomaly is Hurricane Dolly whose path did pass over those areas. But since the anomalies extend as far inland as they do, I find it hard to believe that Dolly, a relatively weak system, alone could affect monthly average temperatures as much as they seem to have been.
Another interesting graphic is on the last three months breakdown. Take a look at the divisional temperature graphic again, and this time, I do want you to focus on the Midwest. Nearly a dozen states in the Central and Northern Plains, are solidly below average for the summer thus far. Even a few divisions reporting much below average. Also, look to the west coast, almost entirely below average.
Now I want to show you the last 12 months breakdown, looking at the divisional precipitation graphic. WOW!!! Iowa almost completely shaded dark green for record wettest, as well as much of Ohio, Indiana, and Wisconsin. But....if you scroll all the way down to the last graphic, the national breakdown for precipitation, over the last 12 months, nationally, we are only average.
Like I said before, I highly encourage you to take a look at the rest of the report. It is very interesting to see where the rest of the nation is, and this site makes it very easy.
Strong Start Increases NOAA’s Confidence for Above-Normal Atlantic Hurricane Season
August 7, 2008
2008
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook.
High resolution (Credit: NOAA)
In the August update to the Atlantic hurricane season outlook, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center has increased the likelihood of an above-normal hurricane season and has raised the total number of named storms and hurricanes that may form. Forecasters attribute this adjustment to atmospheric and oceanic conditions across the Atlantic Basin that favor storm development - combined with the strong early season activity.
NOAA now projects an 85 percent probability of an above-normal season – up from 65 percent in May. The updated outlook includes a 67 percent chance of 14 to 18 named storms, of which seven to 10 are expected to become hurricanes, including three to six major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. These ranges encompass the entire season, which ends November 30, and include the five storms that have formed thus far.
In May, the outlook called for 12 to 16 named storms, including six to nine hurricanes and two to five major hurricanes. An average Atlantic hurricane season has 11 named storms, including six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.
Expected Conditions During 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
High resolution (Credit: NOAA)
“Leading indicators for an above-normal season during 2008 include the continuing multi-decadal signal – atmospheric and oceanic conditions that have spawned increased hurricane activity since 1995 – and the lingering effects of La Niña,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “Some of these conditions include reduced wind shear, weaker trade winds, an active West African monsoon system, the winds coming off of Africa and warmer-than-average water in the Atlantic Ocean.”
Another indicator favoring an above-normal hurricane season is a very active July, the third most active since 1886. Even so, there is still a 10 percent chance of a near normal season and a five percent chance of a below normal season.
Hurricane Dolly on July 23, 2008.
Hurricane Dolly on July 23, 2008.
High resolution (Credit: NOAA) NOAA’s hurricane outlook is a general guide to the expected level of hurricane activity for the entire season. NOAA does not make seasonal landfall predictions since hurricane landfalls are largely determined by the weather patterns in place as a hurricane approaches.
Five named storms have formed already this season. Tropical Storm Arthur affected the Yucatan Peninsula in late May and early June. Bertha was a major hurricane and the longest-lived July storm (July 3-20) on record. Tropical Storm Cristobal skirted the North Carolina coastline. Dolly made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane at South Padre Island, Texas on July 25. And on August 5, Tropical Storm Edouard struck the upper Texas coast.
Water vapor animation.
Atlantic water vapor animation.
Download as Quicktime [MP4] (Credit: NOAA)
“It is critical that everyone know the risk for your area, and have a plan to protect yourself, your family and your property, or to evacuate if requested by local emergency managers. Be prepared throughout the remainder of the hurricane season,” Bell said. “Even people who live inland should be prepared for severe weather and flooding from a tropical storm or a hurricane.”
The Atlantic hurricane season includes activity over the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. The peak months of the season are August through October.
NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our coastal and marine resources.
Culling the internets this AM to find you the weather that you need to know about...in addition to the forecast side of things...there's this...from the Austrian Times today...like I said I cull through 100s of web sites/day to give you information you won't find anywhere else unless you really dig...we'll assume this is true...although I wonder...this may have turned into a disaster for our old friend the "Tidy Bowl" man...remember him??? feel free to insert your joke...
Start article
An Austrian man is demanding substantial damages after he
was blasted off the toilet when hundreds of thousands of hail stones exploded
out of it.
Martin Bierbauer said: "I heard the pipes rumbling a bit, and suddenly
hailstones the size of golf balls started exploding out of the toilet like it
was a popcorn machine.
"There was an avalanche of ice that quickly filled the toilet, then the
entire flat, and eventually the entire building."
"I ran down the stairs with the hailstones following me, and other
residents did the same."
Another resident, Silvia Streit, said: "I grabbed a board and put it over
the toilet, but the pressure was so great, I ended up sitting on the board as
the hail flowed through the flat and down the stairs."
Freak weather has led to temperatures of over 35 degrees centigrade in Austria
which a few days later plunge to near zero as freak hail storms batter the
country.
The incident at the block of flats in Eisenstadt, the capital of the province
of Burgenland, was caused by hailstones flooding into a local drain during a
torrential downpour, which became blocked.
Local council spokesman Wolfgang Leinner said: "The pressure was too
great, the hailstones had to go somewhere and they came out through the toilets
it seems."
end article
OK...lets get back to weather...it's video time...check out the multiple vortex waterspout forming off the coast of Milford, Connecticut a couple of days ago...
For those of you into lightning...check out this AMAZING slow motion shot of a lightning strike...never seen anything before like this...enjoy...
I didn't want to post any actual maps yesterday concerning rainfall potential because I knew they were going to be wrong...and granted that's the case in many situations during this time of year...but with the performance of the modeling so poor in mesoscale situations...I just didn't think it was prudent...bulleyes of precip...(6Z yesterday 9") moving from 100-300 miles in any and all directions...what the point right....however I do think that the modeling in those situations shows indications...that to me is important...i.e. yesterday that 6Z NAM run with the bizarre 9"...well earlier this AM...about 2-3 counties southwest of the metro...3-5" of rain fell with totals in Lyon County approaching 9" as of this writing...so again while the placement was bad...the potential was good...I talk about this a lot during my weathercasts...especially when I show our microcast forecasts...these are our inhouse models that run a forecast using information from local airports etc...in addition to national sources...so ideally you get a better forecast for the local area...the resolution is bettter as well so you get more precise data...however even these models are tossed more often than not...or need to be verbalized as to the error of their ways on the air...however they too show potential in situations...and that's why I talk about them on the air..today if they cooperate with my thinking I'll be trying to show potential rain totals...
One can only hope that they are seeing the various mesoscale functions of the atmosphere which at this point is difficult at best...for example as of this writing rainfalll this afternoon (perhaps significant) is looking more and more promising as a disturbance is coming out of the central plains now and creating an ever expanding area of rain and t-storms in NC KS and SC NE. This is taking dead aim on the viewing area and ties into my thoughts yesterday of a more widespread rainfall event for the region later today into THU AM...this disturbance will be running into 80-85 degree heat and near 70 dewpoints our 850 dewpoints are +16 and the PW's are 1.5" in increasing...so the potential for excessive rainfall of well over 2-3" is real for some areas...maybe some may get close to 5" on the assumption this thing keeps growing and moving our way...Flash Flood Watches are in effect to the S of the metro...however I'm concerned that the rainfall rates could become excessive closer to home and to the NW of here...so I wouldn't be surprised if there is some NW adjustment if this disturbance keeps intensifying...the other concern I have is that the front which was shoved all the way to the south of the area with the storms last night...has started to retreat on the KS side in response to the disturbance...this too could focus more rain into the disturbance as it moves through...so we may have issues later this afternoon...
Severe risk is pretty low...perhaps a brief wind gust...something to watch for because I'm concerned that we're going to see more sunshine over the next several hours...further destabilizing the atmosphere...
On the negative is that this new disturbance will be going to the north of our current fading rain area to our south...their are minor questions in my mind whether or not this fading disturbance will be able to interrupt to good moisture reurn into the NC KS/SC NE system...however that Topeka sounding was north of the rain area this AM...and it's pretty juicy...
KR or your's truly will post more later this afternoon as we track the rain heading our way...
At least with respect to who gets the decent rains...I'll get to that in a few moments...thanks for stopping by on another hot and humid day here in KC...but relief is showing up and it's on the back doorstep...first though...
Did you hear what happened in Chicago last night...a nasty thunderstorm moved right across Wrigley Field...tornado warnings were issued and while no actual touchdowns were reported I think...looking at the winds in some video that I've seen...I'd be guessing 60-70+ MPH winds hit the field...it poured in buckets and lightning lit up the skies...this presents challenges when you consider some 35K people are packed in an area that's getting repeated hits by lighting...what can happen when lighting hits an area with a population concentration in the open...people can get hurt...for example 2 days ago in Norway...91 people were struck by lightning when a bolt hit a hill crowded with spectators watching a car race...most only suffered minor burns but 45 were taken to a hospital....here is some video from last night...from a distance showing the rain and wind hitting the field...
This creates a dangerous scenario...and I've sat through several seminars concerning the potential of a weather disaster hitting a stadium crowded with people...I believe Roger Edwards from the SPC wrote a paper on this exact scenario...looking at what happened last night...it appears the Wrigley Field people did the right thing and got folks to the concourses...I distinctly remember that Chiefs game back in '98 against Seattle when we had that nasty t/storm with the 5+" of rain come right to Arrowhead...I was on the phone pleading with the Refs not to start the game because of the danger of lightning...our station is about 10 minutes west of the stadium and we were getting nailed...meanwhile 80K+ were sitting ducks...alas they started then stopped the game because of the storm...they ended up putting lives at risk due to the lighting and thankfully aside from some crazy pictures...no lives were lost at the game itself because of lightning...it's just a matter of time though...that was the same night if I remember the about 10 people died near the Plaza due to the flooding that occured...
The tropics are still going...Edouard came ashore this AM at around 7AM between High Island and Sabine Pass along the upper TX coast with winds of around 60 MPH...really mainly a rain maker...5-10+" possible there...doppler estimates are pretty impressive...here is a look at radar from the Houston area...and a link to the NWS website in Houston
OK...onto our weather scenario...the front that we've been tracking is just south of KCI as of this writing...temperatures are well into the 80s now and will make it into the 90s again for KC southwards...areas farther south...may flirt with 100...but clouds will impact highs in some areas...here is the visible loop so far today..a.reas south of the front without the cloud cover issues should make it to 100-102 again...much like the reports yesterday...areas farther north...in the cooler air will make it well into the 80s...metro is inbetween...heat indices will vary from 110 south areas to 90-95 up north...it is nice to temps in the 70s in far N MO...won't last but another couple of hours...but we'll take it...
The new NAM has the front getting to the I-44 corridor and then fading away...it also has us getting a series of weak disturbances coming out of the western plains...this potentially can give some areas some heavy rainfall...but as each disturbance moves through...it'll alter the atmospheric surroundings measing the next disturbance may track differently...so while there likely will be some significant rainfall out there...who get's the most in this mesoscale battle remains to be seen..a.t this point I'm not totally trusting the WRF QPF bullseye forecasts...I think it shows potential...but exact evolutions of these scenarios are likely wrong...off the WRF...KCI gets 1.18"...Downtown gets 1.14"...Olathe gets 1.10"...Lawrence gets 1.11" and Sedalia gets 1.61"...the precipitable water may be in excess of 2"...so the potential for 2-4 x's those precip amounts certainly is a concern...and will need to be watched...it'll be a nowcasting forecast as the next 2 days go along...
Also conceivable depending on the rain timing that there may be some areas only in the 70s for highs...DH and I talked about that possibility yesterday and it still exists...
Our main email account is working again...for team emails only...send to wxteam4@wdaftv4.com
Took a quick weekend trip to St Louis...left SAT AM came back yesterday afternoon...a buddy of mine from school came to town to see the new Cardinal stadium..it was my first time there as well...we had seats in the first row behind the Card dugout...and it was very impressive to say the least...the old stadium was all rounded if you might remember...the new one has more angles than I've ever seen in a stadium before...so it was the anti-Busch in a sense...lots of brick everywhere...
Impressions...neat/cool/about 60 luxury boxes I think...I wasn't blown away though...I was VERY impressed though with Cardinal fans...their loyalty is much like a Chiefs game here...everyone has Cards gear on...the downtown area was surprisingly vibrant...it reminded me of the atmosphere of a Cubs game in term of the neighborhood...lots of folks milling around before and after the game...I was just impressed...it was a good game...Cards lost to the Phillies...it's just a totally different atmosphere compared to a Royals game...it did make me really wish we had a downtown stadium...the whole "vibe" of people milling around through the city was different...
One of the negatives was the concession prices...granted stadium concessions are expensive...the Royals aren't as bad as others...but when the hotdogs are $5 a piece...ouch...
Our seats had waiter service...here are the prices if you were to order off the "menu"...
You can see how a night at the ballpark can be crazy expensive...parking close by was $15-20...so there are pluses and minuses to the downtown thing...anyway just my impressions...
10+ years ago...one of my favorite places (White Castle) pulled out of KC...well they're still in St Louis...and I took advantage of the access once again...brought back memories...you can buy them in the frozen food section here...but their just not as good unless they've been steaming away in the onion concoction they've got...needless to say my stomach is just now recovering...but it was worth it...overall a fun quick trip to one of my favorite cities...didn't get a chance to walk around campus...played a quick round of golf yesterday...but I'll have to do that next time through...it's really changed...they just built a new $80 million arena for the basketball team...just opened a couple of months ago so I'd like to see it...St Louis University sure has come a long ways since I was there some 25+ years ago...
OK onto the weather...yesterday the highest heat index was 109 I believe at around 6PM...and today the only question is will the extra wind/mixing knock down the dewpoints a couple of degrees...there is certainly more wind aloft (quite a bit more)...winds up at 1600 feet are close to 45 MPH...so it's possible our dewpoints will not be as extreme...but if they go down then the air temperature goes up...so regardless it's a wash...you do get the feeling that today may be our one chance of hitting 100...assuming we have some trash cloud cover tomorrow...we should stay in the 90s...and after that the "real" extreme heat is gone for the foreseeable future as once again the heat ridge will retrograde to the Rockies...placing us in NW flow...and allowing fronts and disturbances to affect the region. Actually the modelling early this AM has a decidely "not so hot" look to it...
My thoughts concerning tomorrow/WED situation have not changed since last week...a weak front will descend our way from IA/NE later tonight into TUE and should be near the metro tomorrow PM...instability will be high and convergence will be fair at best..,.moisture should pool in the PM hours so certainly storms are possible. PW values should be near or over 1.75"...storm motions should be ESE at 20...so torrential downpours for some are certainly possible...the cap should be breakable as well...so some wind/hail type severe weather wouldn't shock me. Actually the better chance of rain may arrive later tomorrow in WED...as the low level jet gets going and runs over our front that should be south of here by then...a lot will depend on the extent of convection tomorrow PM...and how far the front is forced south...so mesoscale issues will be watched for the scenario laid out for you over the next couple of days...but for sure the extreme heat is leaving for awhile...the air is not exactly bone dry behind the front so it may be tough to truly scour our the 65+ dewpoints for awhile...
Here is a look at the WRF forecast with using google earth...
The new GFS isn't quite as impressive concerning the rain potential...but what it generates in along the metro and points north area...so potential is there...
An Olympic weather satellite launch at Taiyuan Satellite Launch Center in northern Shanxi Province, 27 May 2008The
success of the Beijing Olympics will largely be determined by athletic
prowess and record setting results. But, Director of Research at the
World Meteorological Organization, Leonard Barrie, tells VOA, the
weather can make or break a sporting event.
Beijing Olympic national stadium, known as Bird's Nest, covered by haze, 28 Jul 2008In
Now Casting, Barrie explains meteorologists use weather radar to locate
where rain or thunderstorms may be occurring. With this information, he
says it is possible to know when the bad weather can be expected to
arrive in Beijing. 
